Match Info

BRAZIL: BAIANO - ROUND 9

Date: 3 March 2024, Sunday


	Itabuna		Vitória Salvador

	1	X	2
	9	5	1.26
	10	5	1.22	Watch
	8.19	5.09	1.2
	10.44	6.78	1.18
	12.1	6.2	1.17
	10	5.2	1.24
Avarage Now (Initially)	9.96 ↑ (5.58)	5.55 ↑ (3.6)	1.21 ↓ (1.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 9.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Itabuna
9.1%

Draw
16.3%

Vitória Salvador
74.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

16.3%

25.2%

58.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

16%

24.7%

59.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Itabuna has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Itabuna's form might have worsened.

Vitória Salvador has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+16.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Vitória Salvador's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Itabuna than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Itabuna, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vitória Salvador than the current prediction. (-15%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Vitória Salvador, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Itabuna - Vitória Salvador Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
42. Patyego (G) 29. Carlinhos 23. Diego Augusto 20. Guilherme Ivo 25. Handrey 31. Heleno W. 5. Joadson 11. Reinaldo 9. Romario 15. Vinicius 14. Vinicius Tsumita	1. Muriel (G) 9. Alerrandro 7. Daniel Junior 10. Matheuzinho 11. Osvaldo 14. Patric Calmon 8. Rodrigo Andrade 21. Rodrigues E. 4. Wagner Leonardo 3. Zapata C. 2. Zeca
Substitutes
30. Alex Chander 18. Guilla 1. Jorge (G) 10. Jussimar 7. Silvano 24. Vagner 4. Vital	22. Caceres R. 19. Caio Dantas 15. Caio Vinicius 16. Fabio Soares 13. Joao Victor 20. Luan 6. Lucas Esteves 18. Mateus Goncalves 12. Maycon (G) 5. Willian Oliveira 17. Ze Hugo

Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 9 in the zone Relegation ~ Baiano 2 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Baiano (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

Itabuna has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Vitória is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Itabuna could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Vitória have a series of home games.

In this match Vitória is a favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Itabuna won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Itabuna EC
Copa do Brasil
28.02.24	Itabuna - Nova Iguaçu	0:8 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Baiano
22.02.24	Jequié - Itabuna	2:1 ✺
14.02.24	Itabuna - Barcelona de Ilhéus	0:1 ✺
07.02.24	Bahia - Itabuna	5:0 ✺
01.02.24	Juazeirense - Itabuna	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LLLLT
- EC Vitória Salvador
Brazilian Campeonato Baiano
25.02.24	Vitória Salvador - Atlético de Alagoinhas	3:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
21.02.24	Vitória Salvador - Náutico Capibaribe	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Baiano
18.02.24	Vitória Salvador - Bahia	3:2 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
14.02.24	Juazeirense - Vitória Salvador	2:0 ✺
10.02.24	Vitória Salvador - ABC	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 WTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Baiano
15.01.23	Vitória Salvador - Itabuna	1:4

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