Match Info

Paulista A3 - Round 9

Date: 26 February 2026, Thursday


	Itapirense		Rio Claro

	1	X	2
	3.2	2.92	2.2
	3.31	2.95	2.21
	3.3	2.75	2.2
	3.34	2.91	2.18
	2.7	3	2.48
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.17 ↑ (2.7)	2.91 ↓ (3)	2.25 ↓ (2.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 9.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Itapirense
28.6%

Draw
31.2%

Rio Claro
40.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.5%

30.1%

36.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33%

29.7%

36.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Itapirense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

Rio Claro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Itapirense than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rio Claro than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

Itapirense - Rio Claro Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
3', 0 - 1, Francis A. ⚽,
32', 1 - 1, Facundini T. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation ~ Paulista A4 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista A3 (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Itapirense has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Rio Claro is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

We predict that Rio Claro will win today's game, with odds of 2.28.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SE Itapirense
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A3
22.02.26	Portuguesa Santista - Itapirense	1:0 ✺
15.02.26	Itapirense - Bandeirante	1:2 ✺
11.02.26	União Suzano - Itapirense	3:1 ✺
08.02.26	Itapirense - XV de Jaú	1:3 ✺
04.02.26	Itapirense - Marília	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Rio Claro
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A3
22.02.26	Rio Claro - Desportivo Brasil	1:0 ✺
14.02.26	Rio Claro - Rio Preto	2:1 ✺
11.02.26	Portuguesa Santista - Rio Claro	2:1 ✺
07.02.26	Catanduva - Rio Claro	0:0 ✺
04.02.26	Rio Claro - Rio Branco de Americana	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WWLTW

Itapirense - Rio Claro: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide