Match Info

Paulista A3 - Round 8

Date: 22 February 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Ulrico Mursa (Santos) 🌤️ ...


	Portuguesa Santista		Itapirense

	1	X	2
	1.48	3.6	6.3
	1.48	3.79	6.51	Watch
	1.5	3.4	6.5
	1.44	3.7	7.29
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.48 ↓ (1.49)	3.62 ↓ (3.72)	6.65 ↑ (6.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Portuguesa Santista
61.4%

Draw
25%

Itapirense
13.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

61.4%

24.6%

14%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.5%

23.3%

13.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Portuguesa Santista have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

Itapirense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Portuguesa Santista than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Itapirense than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

Portuguesa Santista - Itapirense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
51', 1 - 0, Yohan ⚽,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista A3 (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 15 in the zone Relegation ~ Paulista A4).

Portuguesa Santista has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Itapirense is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Portuguesa Santista may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Portuguesa Santista is the undeniable favorite.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Portuguesa Santista
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A3
14.02.26	Marília - Portuguesa Santista	3:0 ✺
11.02.26	Portuguesa Santista - Rio Claro	2:1 ✺
07.02.26	Desportivo Brasil - Portuguesa Santista	0:4 ✺
04.02.26	Paulista - Portuguesa Santista	2:0 ✺
01.02.26	Portuguesa Santista - Rio Branco de Americana	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 LWWLW
- SE Itapirense
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A3
15.02.26	Itapirense - Bandeirante	1:2 ✺
11.02.26	União Suzano - Itapirense	3:1 ✺
08.02.26	Itapirense - XV de Jaú	1:3 ✺
04.02.26	Itapirense - Marília	1:2 ✺
31.01.26	Catanduva - Itapirense	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Portuguesa Santista - Itapirense

Match Info

Current Win Probability

Portuguesa Santista - Itapirense Predictions

Key Events of the Match

Preview

Form

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