Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 9

Date: 14 June 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio Novelli Júnior (Itu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Nosso Futebol+, Sky+, Zapping


	Ituano		São Bernardo

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.95	3.1	3.5
	2.58	2.92	2.62	Watch
	2.79	2.99	2.71
				Watch
	2	2.9	3.7
	2.93	2.86	2.65	Watch
	2.58	2.92	2.62
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.47 ↑ (2.42)	2.95 ↑ (2.93)	2.97 ↑ (2.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ituano
37.4%

Draw
31.4%

São Bernardo
31.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.4%

30.8%

31.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.9%

31.2%

31.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Ituano have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

São Bernardo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ituano than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Bernardo than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	25%	50%

Ituano - São Bernardo Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Ituano will win (votes: 1 - 25%). São Bernardo will win (votes: 2 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. São Bernardo (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Jefferson Paulino (G) 5. Daniel 10. Fernando Canesin 8. Grigor 6. Guilherme Dal Pian 4. Matheus Mancini (C) 3. Matheus Rocha 7. Neto Berola 2. Thassio 11. Tiaguinho 9. Vinicius Popo	12. Junior Oliveira (G) 32. Bastos R. 26. Dudu Miraima 11. Felipe Azevedo 35. Foguinho (C) 13. Matheus Salustiano 95. Para 59. Pedro Felipe 4. Rafael Forster 2. Rodrigo Ferreira 17. Romisson
Substitutes
15. Bruno Silva 13. Dija 23. Gabriel Razera 16. Gustavo 21. Kaio Mendes 19. Leo Passos 14. Nathan Silva 22. Osman 20. Ramon 18. Thiago Moraes 1. Vagner (G) 17. Walterson Silva	1. Alex Alves (G) 6. Arthur Henrique 7. Echapora 20. Emerson Santos 90. Felipe Garcia 19. Henry 25. Pedro Carrerette 30. Sillas 75. Valencia J. 10. Vitinho

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2', Matheus Rocha 🟨,
22', Romisson ↓, Emerson Santos ↑,
36', Fernando Canesin 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Tiaguinho ↓, Ramon ↑,
48', Pedro Felipe 🟨,
48', 0 - 1, Bastos R. ⚽,
59', Foguinho 🟨,
62', Vinicius Popo ↓, Leo Passos ↑,
62', Daniel ↓, Osman ↑,
73', Rodrigo Ferreira ↓, Hugo Sanches ↑,
73', Felipe Azevedo ↓, Sillas ↑,
76', Neto Berola ↓, Walterson Silva ↑,
78', Fernando Canesin ↓, Gabriel Razera ↑,
80', Bastos R. ↓, Pedro Carrerette ↑,
80', Matheus Salustiano ↓, Felipe Garcia ↑,
85', Dudu Miraima 🟨,
90+3', 1 - 1, Guilherme Dal Pian ⚽,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C (Second stage: ) and 10).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Ituano might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ituano won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 0:7. (average 0:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Ituano won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2. (average 0:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ituano
Brazilian Serie C
01.06.25	Maringá - Ituano	1:1 ✺
25.05.25	Ituano - Floresta	0:0 ✺
18.05.25	Figueirense - Ituano	2:0 ✺
12.05.25	Ituano - Ponte Preta	0:1 ✺
03.05.25	ABC - Ituano	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 TTLLW
- São Bernardo FC
Brazilian Serie C
02.06.25	São Bernardo - CS Alagoano	1:3 ✺
26.05.25	Brusque - São Bernardo	1:0 ✺
18.05.25	São Bernardo - Caxias	1:0 ✺
10.05.25	Guarani - São Bernardo	0:1 ✺
05.05.25	São Bernardo - Londrina	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 LLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
21.01.24	São Bernardo - Ituano	2:0
22.02.23	Ituano - São Bernardo	0:2
19.02.22	São Bernardo - Ituano	1:0
01.02.14	Ituano - São Bernardo	0:0
03.03.13	São Bernardo - Ituano	2:0

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