Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 5

Date: 12 May 2025, Monday

Location: Estádio Novelli Júnior (Itu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, DAZN Brasil, IT tv Plus, Nosso Futebol+, Sky+, Zapping


	Ituano		Ponte Preta

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.5	2.75	2.75
	2.65	2.75	2.8	Watch
	2.86	2.79	2.91
	2.8	2.71	2.95	Watch
	2.5	2.7	2.8
	2.67	2.82	2.94	Watch
	2.65	2.75	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.66 ↑ (2.2)	2.75 ↓ (3.1)	2.85 ↓ (2.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ituano
34.5%

Draw
33.3%

Ponte Preta
32.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.4%

28.7%

31%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ituano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ituano's form might have worsened.

Ponte Preta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	71.4%	14.3%

Ituano - Ponte Preta Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Ituano will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Ponte Preta will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 71.4%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Ituano (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Jefferson Paulino (G) 5. Bruno Silva 6. Guilherme Dal Pian 10. Leo Passos 3. Luiz Gustavo 4. Matheus Mancini (C) 11. Ramon 2. Thassio 8. Thiago Moraes 9. Vinicius Popo 7. Walterson Silva	12. Diogo Silva (G) 14. Danilo Barcelos 21. Dudu 10. Elvis (C) 18. Emerson Santos 7. Jean Dias 17. Jonas Toro 25. Lucas Candido 2. Maguinho 37. Serginho 34. Wanderson
Substitutes
22. Daniel 13. Dija 20. Fernando Canesin 15. Grigor 19. Gustavo 18. Kaio Mendes 23. Matheus Rocha 14. Nathan Silva 17. Neto Berola 21. Osman 16. Tiaguinho 30. Wesley Borges (G)	35. Diego Tavares 29. Everton Brito 99. Gustavo Vintecinco 9. Jeh 20. Joao Gabriel 55. Leo Oliveira 27. Luiz Felipe 1. Pedro Rocha (G) 5. Rodrigo Souza 4. Saimon 6. Sergio Raphael 31. Victor Andrade
Coaches
de Freitas U.	Alberto Valentim

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
12', Wanderson 🟨,
34', Vinicius Popo ↓, Kaio Mendes ↑,
37', Bruno Silva 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Walterson Silva ↓, Osman ↑,
59', Jonas Toro ↓, Jeh ↑,
60', Danilo Barcelos 🟨,
61', Thiago Moraes ↓, Neto Berola ↑,
63', Luiz Gustavo 🟨,
73', Danilo Barcelos ↓, Everton Brito ↑,
73', Serginho ↓, Joao Gabriel ↑,
77', Luiz Gustavo ↓, Grigor ↑,
77', Leo Passos ↓, Fernando Canesin ↑,
78', Jeh 🟨,
87', Dudu ↓, Leo Oliveira ↑,
87', Jean Dias ↓, Diego Tavares ↑,
90+2', 0 - 1, Jeh ⚽,
90+4', Osman 🟨,
90+4', 🟨,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C (Second stage: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C (Second stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ituano won 2.

Ituano is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Ituano won 5 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 22:17. (average 1.4:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Ituano won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:9. (average 1.3:1.1).

Last Results with these Odds

Ituano - the odds 2.2 are the expected chance of winning is 40.38%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ituano
Brazilian Serie C
03.05.25	ABC - Ituano	2:3 ✺
27.04.25	Ituano - Tombense	3:1 ✺
19.04.25	Anápolis - Ituano	0:1 ✺
12.04.25	Ituano - Brusque	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
29.03.25	Capivariano - Ituano	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.6 WWWTL
- AA Ponte Preta
Brazilian Serie C
03.05.25	Ponte Preta - Anápolis	2:0 ✺
26.04.25	Confiança - Ponte Preta	1:2 ✺
19.04.25	Ponte Preta - Retrô Brasil	1:0 ✺
12.04.25	Figueirense - Ponte Preta	1:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
26.02.25	Concórdia - Ponte Preta	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 WWWTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
13.09.24	Ponte Preta - Ituano	1:4
26.05.24	Ituano - Ponte Preta	2:0
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
17.02.24	Ponte Preta - Ituano	1:1
Brazilian Serie B
23.10.23	Ponte Preta - Ituano	0:0
28.06.23	Ituano - Ponte Preta	0:1
13.09.22	Ponte Preta - Ituano	1:1
07.06.22	Ituano - Ponte Preta	1:2

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