Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 8

Date: 1 June 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio Willie Davids (Maringá)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Nosso Futebol+, Sky+, Zapping


	Maringá		Ituano

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.75	3.2	4.2
	1.62	3.5	5	Watch
	1.62	3.65	5.71
	1.66	3.54	5.55	Watch
	1.83	3	4.2
	1.6	3.54	5.22	Watch
	1.62	3.5	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↓ (1.83)	3.42 ↑ (3.35)	4.98 ↑ (3.97)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Maringá
54.8%

Draw
26.8%

Ituano
18.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.9%

27.2%

23%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.4%

26.4%

23.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Maringá has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

Ituano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Maringá than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Maringá that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ituano than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ituano could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Maringá - Ituano Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Neto (G) 7. Edison Negueba 5. Evanderson 10. Leo Ceara 99. Maranhao 23. Max Miller 33. Rhuan 11. Robertinho 3. Ronald Carvalho (C) 13. Tito 4. Vilar	12. Jefferson Paulino (G) 5. Daniel 8. Grigor 6. Guilherme Dal Pian 4. Matheus Mancini (C) 3. Matheus Rocha 7. Neto Berola 2. Thassio 10. Thiago Moraes 11. Tiaguinho 9. Vinicius Popo
Substitutes
20. Bruno Cheron 32. Caua Tavares 2. Cristovam 26. Fernando 6. Joao Felix 19. Julio Rodrigues 15. Parrudo 35. Pingo 42. Rafael William (G) 22. Raphinha 21. Vitinho	13. Dija 20. Fernando Canesin 19. Gabriel Razera 16. Gustavo 18. Kaio Mendes 21. Leo Passos 14. Nathan Silva 22. Osman 17. Walterson Silva 1. Wesley Borges (G) 15. Ze Carlos
Coaches
Jorge Castilho	Alberto Valentim

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
19', Tiaguinho 🟨,
38', Max Miller 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
53', 0 - 1, Tiaguinho ⚽,
58', Max Miller ↓, Julio Rodrigues ↑,
62', Tito 🟨,
65', Tiaguinho ↓, Osman ↑,
65', Neto Berola ↓, Walterson Silva ↑,
67', Daniel 🟨,
70', Rhuan ↓, Vitinho ↑,
70', Leo Ceara ↓, Bruno Cheron ↑,
81', Tito ↓, Raphinha ↑,
81', Robertinho ↓, Fernando ↑,
82', Daniel ↓, Kaio Mendes ↑,
82', Thiago Moraes ↓, Nathan Silva ↑,
86', Walterson Silva 🟨,
90', Vinicius Popo ↓, Leo Passos ↑,
90+3', 🟨,
90+5', 1 - 1, Vitinho ⚽,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C (Second stage: ) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C (Second stage: )).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Maringá may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Maringá is considered a favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Maringá won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:5. (average 0.5:2.5).

Including home match between the teams, Maringá won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Maringá FC
Brazilian Serie C
25.05.25	Anápolis - Maringá	1:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
21.05.25	Atlético Mineiro - Maringá	4:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
18.05.25	Maringá - Botafogo PB	1:1 ✺
11.05.25	CS Alagoano - Maringá	3:2 ✺
03.05.25	Maringá - Confiança	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 TLTLW
- Ituano
Brazilian Serie C
25.05.25	Ituano - Floresta	0:0 ✺
18.05.25	Figueirense - Ituano	2:0 ✺
12.05.25	Ituano - Ponte Preta	0:1 ✺
03.05.25	ABC - Ituano	2:3 ✺
27.04.25	Ituano - Tombense	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 TLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie D
17.07.16	Maringá - Ituano	1:1
12.06.16	Ituano - Maringá	4:0

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