Match Info

BRAZIL: Baiano - Round 8

Date: 19 February 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Joia da Princesa (Feira de Santana)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	TVE Bahia


	Jacuipense		Porto SC

	1	X	2
	1.67	3.35	4.7
	1.65	3.47	5.22
	1.66	3.48	5.08
	1.7	3.3	4.8
	1.71	3.22	5.71
	1.67	3.35	4.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 ↓ (2.12)	3.36 ↑ (2.6)	5.04 ↑ (4.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jacuipense
54.6%

Draw
27.2%

Porto SC
18.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.9%

35%

22.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.3%

33.9%

21.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jacuipense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Jacuipense's performance.

Porto SC has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jacuipense than the current prediction. (-10.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Jacuipense that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Porto SC than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

Jacuipense - Porto SC Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Marcelo (G) 17. Alex Cazumba 20. Alison Daniel 7. Cesinha 15. Everson (C) 22. Hugo Moura 11. Jefferson Baiano 10. Matheus Firmino 14. Thiago 8. Vinicius Amaral 4. Weverton	1. Patyego (G) 9. Adriano Napao 11. Caio 7. Diki 3. Everton Dias 2. Gabriel Saulo 10. Luan Rodrigues (C) 8. Pedro Dias 6. Peu 4. Rafael Sales 5. Sidney

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
15', 1 - 0, ⚽,
20', Pedro Dias 🟨,
45+3', Cesinha 🟨,
2nd Half (4 - 0)
52', Thiago 🟨,
57', Rafael Sales 🟨,
57', Matheus Firmino 🟨,
59', Jefferson Baiano ↓, Flavinho ↑,
59', Alison Daniel ↓, William ↑,
68', 2 - 0, Cesinha ⚽,
80', 3 - 0, Hugo Moura ⚽,
86', 4 - 0, Mizael Junior ⚽,
87', 🟨,
89', Patyego 🟥,
90+2', 5 - 0, Vinicius Amaral ⚽,

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will meet in this game (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Baiano (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 8).

Jacuipense is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Porto is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Porto could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Jacuipense is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Jacuipense
Brazilian Campeonato Baiano
12.02.25	Barcelona de Ilhéus - Jacuipense	1:1 ✺
05.02.25	Atlético de Alagoinhas - Jacuipense	1:1 ✺
30.01.25	Jacuipense - Colo Colo de Ilhéus	1:0 ✺
26.01.25	Jacuipense - Juazeirense	2:0 ✺
19.01.25	Vitória Salvador - Jacuipense	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6 TTWWT
- Porto SC Porto Seguro
Brazilian Campeonato Baiano
08.02.25	Vitória Salvador - Porto SC	2:1 ✺
02.02.25	Porto SC - Jequié	1:2 ✺
30.01.25	Juazeirense - Porto SC	0:2 ✺
26.01.25	Bahia - Porto SC	2:0 ✺
21.01.25	Porto SC - Atlético de Alagoinhas	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LLWLT

Jacuipense - Porto SC: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide