Match Info

Conference League - Qualification - Final

Date: 21 August 2025, Thursday

Location: Chorten Arena (Bialystok)

Referee: Barbu M. (Rou)

Where to Watch on TV:


Poland	Polsat Sport 1, Polsat Sport Premium 1


	Jagiellonia Białystok		Dinamo City

	1	X	2
	1.22	6	9.5	Watch
	1.27	5.5	9
	1.21	5.9	12.5	Watch
	1.22	5.9	11.53
	1.62	4.10	4.51	Watch
	1.25	6.7	10.1	Watch
	1.41	4.6	7.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.31 ↓ (1.58)	5.53 ↑ (4.1)	9.19 ↑ (4.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jagiellonia Białystok
72.4%

Draw
17.2%

Dinamo City
10.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.3%

22.1%

20.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.4%

21%

19.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jagiellonia Białystok has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Jagiellonia Białystok's performance.

Dinamo City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Dinamo City might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jagiellonia Białystok than the current prediction. (-12%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Jagiellonia Białystok that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dinamo City than the current prediction. (+9.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Dinamo City could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
79.3%	13.8%	6.9%

Jagiellonia Białystok - Dinamo City Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Jagiellonia (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 3 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Jagiellonia Białystok will win (23 of 29 users predict this - 79.31%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.57% – 94.05%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
50. Abramowicz S. (G) 15. Wojtuszek N. 13. Vital B. 4. Kobayashi Y. 27. Wdowik B. 7. Pozo A. 6. Romanczuk T. (C) 31. Flach L. 80. Pietuszewski O. 10. Pululu A. 11. Imaz J.	77. Teqja A. (G) 18. Nani T. 28. Meksi J. 27. Aliji N. (C) 47. Lorran 31. Beqja L. 10. Vila L. 17. Gassama K. 29. Berisha H. 11. Bregu D. 23. Berisha B.
Substitutes
19. Cantero A. 25. Jackson A. 85. Kozlowski E. 86. Mazurek B. 22. Piekutowski M. (G) 5. Polak C. 18. Prip L. 9. Rallis D. 3. Stojinovic D. 20. Villar Miki	45. Aniekan James B. 22. Dita B. 24. Ferruku F. 8. Goudiaby B. 50. Guci R. (G) 2. Ismaili U. 20. Jonuzi F. 14. Maliqi B. 93. Neziri F. 99. Qardaku E. 1. Sali E. (G)
Coaches
Siemieniec A.	Daja I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
12', 1 - 0, Imaz J. ⚽,
34', 2 - 0, Pululu A. ⚽, Flach L. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
50', 3 - 0, Wojtuszek N. ⚽,
57', Berisha H. ↓, Maliqi B. ↑,
57', Beqja L. ↓, Goudiaby B. ↑,
66', Pietuszewski O. ↓, Villar Miki ↑,
66', Pozo A. ↓, Cantero A. ↑,
71', Gassama K. ↓, Jonuzi F. ↑,
71', Lorran ↓, Neziri F. ↑,
71', Pululu A. ↓, Rallis D. ↑,
81', Imaz J. ↓, Jackson A. ↑,
81', Romanczuk T. ↓, Mazurek B. ↑,
82', Bregu D. ↓, Aniekan James B. ↑,

Preview

1st leg.

Jagiellonia is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Dinamo Tirana has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Jagiellonia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Jagiellonia is the undisputed favorite.

We predict that Jagiellonia will win today's game, with odds of 1.35.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Jagiellonia Białystok - the odds 1.58 are the expected chance of winning is 57.32%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jagiellonia Białystok
Polish Ekstraklasa
17.08.25	Radomiak Radom - Jagiellonia Białystok	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
14.08.25	Jagiellonia Białystok - Silkeborg IF	2:2 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
10.08.25	Jagiellonia Białystok - Cracovia	5:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
07.08.25	Silkeborg IF - Jagiellonia Białystok	0:1 ✺
31.07.25	Jagiellonia Białystok - Novi Pazar	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 WTWWW
- Dinamo City Tirana
UEFA Europa Conference League
14.08.25	Dinamo City - Hajduk Split	3:1 ET ✺
07.08.25	Hajduk Split - Dinamo City	2:1 ✺
31.07.25	Dinamo City - Atlètic Escaldes	1:1 ✺
24.07.25	Atlètic Escaldes - Dinamo City	1:2 ✺
Club Friendly
01.07.25	Shkendija Tetovo - Dinamo City	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 WLTWL

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