Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 4

Date: 10 August 2025, Sunday

Location: Chorten Arena (Bialystok)

Referee: Gryckiewicz P. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 3
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Poland	CANAL+ Premium, CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV, TVP Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport 2
Slovenia	Arena Sport 2
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz


	Jagiellonia Białystok		Cracovia

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.3	4	Watch
	2.1	3.5	3.1
	1.75	3.4	4.55	Watch
	1.99	3.6	4
	2.08	3.32	3.54	Watch
	2.2	3.3	3
	1.8	3.48	4.6	Watch
	2.25	3.2	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.01 ↓ (2.15)	3.39 ↑ (3.03)	3.76 ↑ (3.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jagiellonia Białystok
47%

Draw
27.9%

Cracovia
25.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.5%

29.5%

29%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43%

30.6%

28%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jagiellonia Białystok has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Jagiellonia Białystok's performance.

Cracovia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jagiellonia Białystok than the current prediction. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cracovia than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
58.3%	8.3%	33.3%

Jagiellonia Białystok - Cracovia Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Jagiellonia will win (votes: 7 - 58.3%). Cracovia will win (votes: 4 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 8.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Jagiellonia: 30.4% – 86.2%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Cracovia (1.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Jagiellonia Białystok will win (6 of 8 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Jagiellonia (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Cracovia (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
50. Abramowicz S. (G) 15. Wojtuszek N. 13. Vital B. 4. Kobayashi Y. 27. Wdowik B. 8. Drachal D. 6. Romanczuk T. (C) 25. Jackson A. 18. Prip L. 10. Pululu A. 80. Pietuszewski O.	27. Ravas H. (G) 66. Wojcik O. 4. Henriksson G. 39. Perkovic M. 79. Pila D. 6. Al Ammari A. 11. Maigaard M. 19. Olafsson D. 25. Kakabadze O. (C) 9. Stojilkovic F. 17. Minchev M.
Substitutes
19. Cantero A. 31. Flach L. 11. Imaz J. 86. Mazurek B. 22. Piekutowski M. (G) 5. Polak C. 7. Pozo A. 9. Rallis D. 3. Stojinovic D. 20. Villar Miki	33. Cymerys K. (G) 77. Janasik P. 24. Jugas J. 70. Kameri D. 20. Knap K. 13. Madejski S. (G) 7. Praszelik M. 3. Skovgaard A. 18. Zahiroleslam K.
Coaches
Siemieniec A.	Elsner L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
15', 0 - 1, Stojilkovic F. ⚽,
19', 1 - 1, Pietuszewski O. ⚽,
20', 1 - 2, Kakabadze O. ⚽, Minchev M. (A),
42', Kobayashi Y. 🟨,
44', Maigaard M. (Pen),
2nd Half (4 - 0)
46', Kobayashi Y. ↓, Stojinovic D. ↑,
46', Jackson A. ↓, Imaz J. ↑,
46', Wojcik O. 🟨,
55', 2 - 2, Pululu A. (Pen),
56', Prip L. ↓, Pozo A. ↑,
64', Drachal D. 🟨,
65', Olafsson D. 🟨,
69', Perkovic M. 🟥,
71', Al Ammari A. ↓, Knap K. ↑,
73', 3 - 2, Romanczuk T. ⚽, Wdowik B. (A),
79', Drachal D. ↓, Flach L. ↑,
79', Olafsson D. ↓, Zahiroleslam K. ↑,
80', Minchev M. ↓, Kameri D. ↑,
82', 4 - 2, Pozo A. ⚽, Imaz J. (A),
86', Pululu A. ↓, Rallis D. ↑,
88', 5 - 2, Rallis D. ⚽, Wojtuszek N. (A),
90+2', Stojilkovic F. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Jagiellonia won 1.

Jagiellonia is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Cracovia is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Jagiellonia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Cracovia has had a series of home games.

Jagiellonia could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Cracovia: Glik K. (Knee Injury) Rakoczy M. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Jagiellonia won 8 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 28:29. (average 1.4:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Jagiellonia won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 13:12. (average 1.4:1.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Jagiellonia Białystok - the odds 2.15 are the expected chance of winning is 41.53%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Cracovia - the odds 3.08 are the expected chance of winning is 28.99%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jagiellonia Białystok
UEFA Europa Conference League
07.08.25	Silkeborg IF - Jagiellonia Białystok	0:1 ✺
31.07.25	Jagiellonia Białystok - Novi Pazar	3:1 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
27.07.25	Jagiellonia Białystok - Widzew Łódź	3:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
24.07.25	Novi Pazar - Jagiellonia Białystok	1:2 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
18.07.25	Jagiellonia Białystok - Termalica Nieciecza	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 WWWWL
- Cracovia Krakow
Club Friendly
04.08.25	Cracovia - Asteras Tripolis	Canceled ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
03.08.25	Cracovia - Lechia Gdańsk	2:2 ✺
25.07.25	Cracovia - Termalica Nieciecza	2:0 ✺
18.07.25	Lech Poznań - Cracovia	1:4 ✺
Club Friendly
11.07.25	Cracovia - Podbrezová	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.7 ?TWWW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
23.02.25	Cracovia - Jagiellonia Białystok	2:2
17.08.24	Jagiellonia Białystok - Cracovia	2:4
14.04.24	Jagiellonia Białystok - Cracovia	1:3
08.10.23	Cracovia - Jagiellonia Białystok	2:4
20.05.23	Jagiellonia Białystok - Cracovia	1:1
05.11.22	Cracovia - Jagiellonia Białystok	1:0
19.02.22	Jagiellonia Białystok - Cracovia	0:0

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