Match Info

Conference League - Qualification - Quarter-finals

Date: 31 July 2025, Thursday

Location: Chorten Arena (Bialystok)

Referee: Karaoglan A. (Tur)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2
Kosovo	Arena Premium 3
Poland	Polsat Sport 1, Polsat Sport Premium 1
Serbia	Arena Premium 3


	Jagiellonia Białystok		Novi Pazar

	1	X	2
	1.29	5.5	8	Watch
	1.3	5.25	7.75
	1.25	6	9	Watch
	1.26	5.92	9.72
	1.36	4.63	8.30	Watch
	1.3	5	8
	1.3	6.2	9.1	Watch
	1.34	5	7.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.3 (1.3)	5.44 ↑ (4.75)	8.4 ↑ (8)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jagiellonia Białystok
71.7%

Draw
17.2%

Novi Pazar
11.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.6%

19.1%

11.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

73.3%

18.1%

10.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jagiellonia Białystok has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Novi Pazar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jagiellonia Białystok than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Novi Pazar than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
84.2%	10.5%	5.3%

Jagiellonia Białystok - Novi Pazar Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Jagiellonia (votes: 6 - 60%). Novi Pazar (votes: 2 - 20%). Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Jagiellonia (1.29) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Jagiellonia Białystok will win (16 of 19 users predict this - 84.21%).
Confidence interval (95%): 67.81% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Jagiellonia (votes: 7 - 63.6%). Novi Pazar (votes: 2 - 18.2%). Tie (votes: 2 - 18.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
50. Abramowicz S. (G) 15. Wojtuszek N. 13. Vital B. 4. Kobayashi Y. 27. Wdowik B. 7. Pozo A. 8. Drachal D. 6. Romanczuk T. (C) 19. Cantero A. 11. Imaz J. 10. Pululu A.	1. Samcovic Z. (G) 23. Marinkovic J. 4. Hadzimujovic A. 27. Kurdic N. 3. Miletic N. 14. Alic S. 6. Cisse A. 7. Omoregbe B. 22. Ljajic A. (C) 21. Petkovic M. 11. Opara E.
Substitutes
31. Flach L. 55. Hirosawa T. 25. Jackson A. 85. Kozlowski E. 86. Mazurek B. 22. Piekutowski M. (G) 80. Pietuszewski O. 5. Polak C. 18. Prip L. 9. Rallis D. 3. Stojinovic D. 20. Villar Miki	8. Abdullahi A. 15. Backulja F. 2. Bojat D. 5. Bruncevic E. 17. Malekinusic M. 20. Mirosavic V. 12. Prekovic M. (G) 16. Togbe S.
Coaches
Siemieniec A.	Gacinovic V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
36', Imaz J. 🟨,
45+1', Kurdic N. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
46', Petkovic M. ↓, Malekinusic M. ↑,
50', 1 - 0, Pululu A. ⚽, Imaz J. (A),
53', Omoregbe B. 🟨,
55', Pozo A. ↓, Pietuszewski O. ↑,
55', Cantero A. ↓, Prip L. ↑,
55', Alic S. ↓, Togbe S. ↑,
62', Omoregbe B. ↓, Abdullahi A. ↑,
66', Imaz J. ↓, Jackson A. ↑,
70', Togbe S. 🟨,
73', 2 - 0, Pululu A. (Pen),
75', Pululu A. 🟨,
75', Kobayashi Y. ↓, Stojinovic D. ↑,
75', Drachal D. ↓, Mazurek B. ↑,
78', Hadzimujovic A. ↓, Bruncevic E. ↑,
78', Marinkovic J. ↓, Bojat D. ↑,
85', 2 - 1, Abdullahi A. ⚽, Ljajic A. (A),
87', Bojat D. 🟨,
90+4', 3 - 1, Romanczuk T. ⚽, Wdowik B. (A),

Preview

1st leg result: 2-1. 2nd leg.

Jagiellonia has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Novi Pazar's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Jagiellonia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, the opponents have had a series of home games.

In this match, Jagiellonia is the clear favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Jagiellonia won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jagiellonia Białystok
Polish Ekstraklasa
27.07.25	Jagiellonia Białystok - Widzew Łódź	3:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
24.07.25	Novi Pazar - Jagiellonia Białystok	1:2 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
18.07.25	Jagiellonia Białystok - Termalica Nieciecza	0:4 ✺
Club Friendly
12.07.25	Jagiellonia Białystok - Teplice	0:1 ✺
11.07.25	Jagiellonia Białystok - Zagłębie Lubin	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WWLLL
- FK Novi Pazar
Serbian Superliga
27.07.25	Napredak Kruševac - Novi Pazar	2:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
24.07.25	Novi Pazar - Jagiellonia Białystok	1:2 ✺
Club Friendly
10.07.25	Novi Pazar - Spartak Subotica	1:2 ✺
08.07.25	Novi Pazar - Mladost Lučani	1:1 ✺
05.07.25	Novi Pazar - Radnik Bijeljina	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.3 TLLTL

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa Conference League
24.07.25	Novi Pazar - Jagiellonia Białystok	1:2

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