Match Info

III Liga - Group I - Round 12

Date: 11 October 2025, Saturday


	Jagiellonia II Białystok		Warta Sieradz

	1	X	2
	2.62	3.65	2.18
	2.74	3.7	2.06
	2.68	3.51	2.33	Watch
	3.09	3.7	2.06	Watch
	3.1	3.6	1.96
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.85 ↑ (2.66)	3.63 ↓ (3.68)	2.12 ↓ (2.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 7.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jagiellonia II Białystok
32%

Draw
25.1%

Warta Sieradz
43%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.2%

24.7%

41.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.2%

24%

42.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jagiellonia II Białystok has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Warta Sieradz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jagiellonia II Białystok than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Warta Sieradz than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

Jagiellonia II Białystok - Warta Sieradz Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 2)
51', 0 - 1, Drzazga K. ⚽,
88', 0 - 2, Piela J. ⚽,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 15 in the zone Relegation and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Division 2 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Jagiellonia II won 3.

Recent performances by Jagiellonia II have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Warta Sieradz is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Warta Sieradz may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Warta Sieradz might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Jagiellonia II won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:6. (average 1.7:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Jagiellonia II won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:1. (average 2.3:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jagiellonia II Białystok
Polish Division 3 - Group I
05.10.25	Widzew Łódź II - Jagiellonia II Białystok	1:1 ✺
28.09.25	Jagiellonia II Białystok - Broń Radom	1:0 ✺
20.09.25	Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki - Jagiellonia II Białystok	3:2 ✺
13.09.25	Jagiellonia II Białystok - Wisła Płock II	1:1 ✺
06.09.25	Jagiellonia II Białystok - Znicz Biała Piska	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 TWLTT
- Warta Sieradz
Polish Division 3 - Group I
03.10.25	Warta Sieradz - Znicz Biała Piska	3:1 ✺
27.09.25	Warta Sieradz - GKS Bełchatów	2:1 ✺
20.09.25	Troszyn - Warta Sieradz	0:0 ✺
13.09.25	Warta Sieradz - Legia II	3:2 ✺
06.09.25	Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki - Warta Sieradz	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Division 3 - Group I
13.04.25	Jagiellonia II Białystok - Warta Sieradz	1:1
14.09.24	Warta Sieradz - Jagiellonia II Białystok	2:1
27.04.24	Jagiellonia II Białystok - Warta Sieradz	2:0
30.09.23	Warta Sieradz - Jagiellonia II Białystok	0:1
04.03.23	Jagiellonia II Białystok - Warta Sieradz	4:0
06.08.22	Warta Sieradz - Jagiellonia II Białystok	3:1

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