Match Info

BRAZIL: CATARINENSE - PLAY OFFS - QUARTER-FINALS

Date: 9 March 2024, Saturday

Location: Arena Joinville (Joinville)


	Joinville		Avaí

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.3	2.95	2.85
	2.4	3.1	2.95	Watch
	2.4	2.96	3.03
	2.4	2.96	3.03
	2.35	3.2	2.94
	2.39	3	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.37 ↓ (2.7)	3.03 ↓ (3.17)	2.94 ↑ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.8%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Joinville
38.6%

Draw
30.3%

Avaí
31.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.1%

29.1%

36.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.3%

29.8%

37.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Joinville has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

Avaí has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Avaí might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Joinville than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Joinville that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Avaí than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Avaí could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Joinville - Avaí Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Caio Ghisleri (G) 8. Bruno Silva (C) 3. Carlos Alexandre 5. Evanderson 11. Guilherme Cachoeira 2. Lucas Mendes 4. Lucas Souza 6. Marcus Vinicius 7. Vitor Leque 10. Warley 9. Yuri Mamute	1. Igor Bohn (C) 3. Douglas Bacelar 30. Gabriel Dias 9. Gabriel Poveda 95. Jonathan Costa 33. Mario Sergio 11. Mauricio Garcez 27. Pedrinho 21. Pedro Castro 23. Rafael Gava 6. Willian Maranhao
Substitutes
15. Alisson 13. Bernardo 16. Danilo Matielo 23. Diego Renan 12. Henrique P. (G) 18. Kadu 17. Lucas de Sa 20. Lucas Douglas 21. Philippe Costa 22. Pichu M. 14. Victor Manoel 19. Yalle	99. Ademilson 5. Alan 78. Andrey 31. Cesar Augusto (G) 8. Giovanni 29. Jean Lucas 19. Joao Paulo 2. Kevin 4. Roberto Rosa 72. Thales Oleques 83. Wanderson 10. Willian Pottker
Coaches
Santos F.	Eduardo Barroca

Preview

1st leg.

Watch a game between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a team which is a leader now (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Catarinense (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Catarinense (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Joinville won 1.

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Joinville could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Last 25 head-to-head matches Joinville won 8 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 11 matches and goals 25-26.

Including matches at home between the teams Joinville won 3 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 12-13.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Joinville
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
02.03.24	Nação - Joinville	1:3 ✺
24.02.24	Joinville - Criciúma	0:0 ✺
21.02.24	Joinville - Concórdia	1:2 ✺
18.02.24	Barra Santa Catarina - Joinville	1:1 ✺
10.02.24	Chapecoense - Joinville	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 WTLTW
- Avaí
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
02.03.24	Concórdia - Avaí	0:1 ✺
28.02.24	Avaí - Barra Santa Catarina	1:0 ✺
24.02.24	Avaí - Brusque	0:1 ✺
17.02.24	Figueirense - Avaí	1:2 ✺
12.02.24	Avaí - Criciúma	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
07.02.24	Joinville - Avaí	2:2
Brazilian Copa Santa Catarina
12.10.23	Avaí - Joinville	1:1
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
05.03.23	Joinville - Avaí	3:0
12.02.22	Avaí - Joinville	0:0
07.04.21	Avaí - Joinville	1:0
16.02.20	Avaí - Joinville	2:1
03.03.19	Avaí - Joinville	3:0

Upcoming Matches