Match Info

Catarinense - Round 6

Date: 25 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Arena Condá (Chapecó)


	Chapecoense		Joinville

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.45	3.8	7.1
	1.41	3.66	9.56
	1.42	3.95	8.72	Watch
	1.44	3.6	7.5
	1.43	3.52	8.6
	1.4	3.6	9.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.43 ↓ (1.6)	3.69 ↑ (3.39)	8.5 ↑ (5.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chapecoense
64.3%

Draw
24.9%

Joinville
10.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.9%

26.9%

16.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.6%

25.7%

15.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chapecoense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Chapecoense's performance.

Joinville has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Joinville might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chapecoense than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Joinville than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

Chapecoense - Joinville Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Chapecoense (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Chapecoense (1.78) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Chapecoense (votes: 5 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Leo Vieira (G) 27. Camilo Reijers 37. Clar W. 3. Eduardo Doma 10. Giovanni Augusto 77. Italo 4. Joao Paulo 7. Marcinho (C) 2. Marcos Vinicius 99. Rafael Carvalheira 25. Victor Caetano	1. Thiago (G) 3. Alyson 9. Da Silva 4. Gutieri (C) 11. Iago Dias 10. Juliano 6. Natanael 7. Rickson 2. Toty 5. Victor Oliveira 8. Yalle
Substitutes
33. Bruno Leonardo 97. Enio 26. Everton 22. Higor Meritao 20. Jean Carlos 5. Joao Vitor 21. Kauan 90. Mailson 9. Pedro Perotti 1. Rafael Santos (G) 8. Robert Conceicao 70. Rubens Ricoldi	14. Brendon 18. Erick Crispim 20. Fernando Neto 16. Gabriel Paris 21. Kaka 17. Keke 22. Lucas Lopes 12. Rodrigo Bazilio (G) 15. Vinicius R. 19. Yuri Souza

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
11', 🟨,
15', 1 - 0, Iago Dias (Own goal),
23', Marcinho 🟨,
36', 2 - 0, Rafael Carvalheira ⚽,
40', Iago Dias ↓, Erick Crispim ↑,
2nd Half (4 - 0)
60', 3 - 0, ⚽,
62', 🟨,
65', 4 - 0, Rafael Carvalheira ⚽,
68', 5 - 0, ⚽,
80', 🟨,
88', 6 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

Joinville is Catarinense (Relegation Group )

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Chapecoense won 2.

In recent matches, Chapecoense has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Joinville has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Chapecoense may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Chapecoense is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Chapecoense won 10 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 26:20. (average 1.3:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Chapecoense won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 15:11. (average 1.4:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chapecoense-SC
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
21.01.26	Avaí - Chapecoense	1:1 ✺
18.01.26	Chapecoense - Náutico Marcílio Dias	1:0 ✺
14.01.26	Concórdia - Chapecoense	1:2 ✺
11.01.26	Camboriú - Chapecoense	2:0 ✺
06.01.26	Chapecoense - Brusque	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 TWWLT
- Joinville
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
21.01.26	Joinville - Carlos Renaux	0:1 ✺
18.01.26	Santa Catarina - Joinville	3:1 ✺
15.01.26	Joinville - Criciúma	0:0 ✺
10.01.26	Barra Santa Catarina - Joinville	1:0 ✺
07.01.26	Joinville - Figueirense	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
09.03.25	Chapecoense - Joinville	2:1
22.02.25	Chapecoense - Joinville	1:1
Brazilian Copa Santa Catarina
13.10.24	Chapecoense - Joinville	1:0
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
10.02.24	Chapecoense - Joinville	2:3
Brazilian Copa Santa Catarina
29.10.23	Joinville - Chapecoense	5:1
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
18.02.23	Joinville - Chapecoense	1:1
09.02.22	Joinville - Chapecoense	2:1

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