Match Info

Serie D - Round 7

Date: 1 June 2025, Sunday


	Joinville		Brasil de Pelotas

	1	X	2
	1.42	3.8	6.75
	1.41	3.9	7.4
	1.39	3.9	8.68
	1.39	3.94	8.64	Watch
	1.35	3.92	9.65
	1.41	3.9	7.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.4 ↓ (1.75)	3.89 ↑ (3.4)	8.09 ↑ (4.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Joinville
65.3%

Draw
23.4%

Brasil de Pelotas
11.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.5%

26.5%

22%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.6%

25.5%

21.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Joinville has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Joinville's performance.

Brasil de Pelotas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Brasil de Pelotas might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Joinville than the current prediction. (-11.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Joinville that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Brasil de Pelotas than the current prediction. (+9.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Brasil de Pelotas could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Joinville - Brasil de Pelotas Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
87', 1 - 0, Julio Cesar ⚽,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D (Play Offs: 1/16~finals) and 8).

Joinville is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Brasil de Pelotas has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Brasil de Pelotas may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Joinville is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Joinville won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:4. (average 0.3:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Joinville won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1. (average 0.5:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Joinville
Brazilian Serie D
26.05.25	São Luiz - Joinville	0:1 ✺
17.05.25	Joinville - Barra Santa Catarina	2:1 ✺
10.05.25	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Joinville	1:0 ✺
03.05.25	Joinville - Azuriz	1:0 ✺
27.04.25	EC São José Porto Alegre - Joinville	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 WWLWT
- Brasil de Pelotas
Brazilian Serie D
25.05.25	Brasil de Pelotas - Náutico Marcílio Dias	1:2 ✺
18.05.25	Brasil de Pelotas - Guarany de Bagé	0:0 ✺
10.05.25	São Luiz - Brasil de Pelotas	1:0 ✺
03.05.25	Brasil de Pelotas - EC São José Porto Alegre	1:3 ✺
26.04.25	Azuriz - Brasil de Pelotas	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie D
07.11.20	Joinville - Brasil de Pelotas	0:0
04.10.20	Brasil de Pelotas - Joinville	1:0
Brazilian Serie B
28.10.16	Joinville - Brasil de Pelotas	1:1
02.07.16	Brasil de Pelotas - Joinville	2:0

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