Match Info

Copa FGF - Round 1

Date: 13 May 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estádio Bento Freitas (Pelotas)


	Brasil de Pelotas		Guarany de Bagé

	1	X	2
	2.24	2.78	3.56	Watch
	2.14	2.94	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.19 ↓ (2.32)	2.86 ↓ (2.9)	3.48 ↑ (3.16)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Brasil de Pelotas
41.8%

Draw
32%

Guarany de Bagé
26.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.5%

31.6%

29%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.6%

30.7%

28.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Brasil de Pelotas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

Guarany de Bagé has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brasil de Pelotas than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Guarany de Bagé than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

Brasil de Pelotas - Guarany de Bagé Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
16', 1 - 0, Guty ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
55', 2 - 0, Gabriel Morbeck ⚽,

Preview

Neither of the teams is performing well right now.

Brasil de Pelotas may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Brasil de Pelotas will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Brasil de Pelotas won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:3. (average 1:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Brasil de Pelotas won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:2. (average 1.3:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Brasil de Pelotas
Brazilian Serie D
09.05.26	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Brasil de Pelotas	4:1 ✺
Brazilian Recopa Gaucho
06.05.26	Brasil de Pelotas - Internacional RS	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie D
02.05.26	Brasil de Pelotas - Náutico Marcílio Dias	0:1 ✺
25.04.26	EC São José Porto Alegre - Brasil de Pelotas	0:0 ✺
19.04.26	Brasil de Pelotas - São-Joseense	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LLLTW
- Guarany de Bagé
Brazilian Serie D
10.05.26	Guarany de Bagé - Santa Catarina	1:0 ✺
26.04.26	Guarany de Bagé - São Luiz	0:1 ✺
19.04.26	FC Cascavel - Guarany de Bagé	1:0 ✺
12.04.26	Guarany de Bagé - Joinville	0:0 ✺
05.04.26	Cianorte - Guarany de Bagé	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie D
29.06.25	Guarany de Bagé - Brasil de Pelotas	1:0
18.05.25	Brasil de Pelotas - Guarany de Bagé	0:0
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
25.01.25	Brasil de Pelotas - Guarany de Bagé	0:0
11.02.24	Brasil de Pelotas - Guarany de Bagé	1:1
02.02.22	Brasil de Pelotas - Guarany de Bagé	4:1

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