Match Info

Catarinense - Relegation Group - Round 5

Date: 27 February 2026, Friday

Location: Arena Joinville (Joinville)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Sky+, SportyNet, Zapping


	Joinville		Figueirense

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.15	3.15	2.18
	3.29	3.12	2.25	Watch
	3.1	3	2.15
	2.85	3.32	2.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.1 ↓ (3.26)	3.15 (3.15)	2.23 ↑ (2.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Joinville
29.6%

Draw
29.2%

Figueirense
41.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.1%

29%

42.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27%

27.9%

44.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Joinville has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

Figueirense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Joinville than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Figueirense than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

Joinville - Figueirense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Thiago (C) 8. Felipe Para 10. Fernando Neto 7. Gabriel Terra 5. Jhony Douglas 11. Keke 6. Natanael 2. Toty 4. Victor Oliveira 3. Vitao 9. Yuri Souza	12. Fabricio Santana (G) 6. Arthur Henrique 18. da Costa M. 22. Ezequiel 27. Felipe Santiago 70. Igor Bolt 30. Jean Mangabeira 25. Jhonnathan 99. Kayke 28. Rafinha Potiguar 66. Wesley Costa
Substitutes
25. Alyson 14. Brendon 17. Erick Crispim 16. Gabriel Paris 23. Jean Mineiro 19. Joel E. 22. Kaka 21. Klock J. 20. Lucas Lopes 18. Rickson 76. Rodrigo Bazilio (G) 15. Yalle	8. Flavio 33. Freitas Barreto P. C. 91. Hyuri 52. Igo Gabriel (G) 3. Joao Artur 23. Junior (G) 20. Oliveira W. 17. Pablo 79. Paje 36. Saraiva P. 88. Thierri

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
33', Jean Mangabeira 🟨,
36', da Costa M. 🟨,
42', 0 - 1, Kayke ⚽,
45+1', 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Yuri Souza ↓, Klock J. ↑,
46', da Costa M. ↓, Hyuri ↑,
54', 0 - 2, Arthur Henrique ⚽,
56', Hyuri 🟨,
63', Vitao 🟨,
66', Natanael 🟨,
75', Arthur Henrique 🟨,
76', Toty ↓, Lucas Lopes ↑,
76', Jhony Douglas ↓, Erick Crispim ↑,
78', 0 - 3, Kayke ⚽,
79', Rafinha Potiguar ↓, Flavio ↑,
79', Arthur Henrique ↓, Paje ↑,
84', Natanael ↓, Gabriel Paris ↑,
84', Kayke ↓, Pablo ↑,
84', Vitao ↓, Alyson ↑,
90+1', Igor Bolt ↓, Wendell ↑,

Preview

Joinville is Relegated to Catarinense 2

Figueirense is Relegated to Catarinense 2

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Joinville won 0.

In recent matches, Joinville has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Figueirense is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Figueirense may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Figueirense could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Joinville won 4 matches, drew 9 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 18:23. (average 0.9:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Joinville won 1 match, drew 5 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 8:13. (average 0.9:1.4).

Last Results with these Odds

Figueirense - the odds 2.14 are the expected chance of winning is 42.85%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Joinville
Copa do Brasil
24.02.26	Joinville - CS Alagoano	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
19.02.26	Carlos Renaux - Joinville	2:1 ✺
13.02.26	Joinville - Carlos Renaux	3:0 ✺
06.02.26	Figueirense - Joinville	1:0 ✺
03.02.26	Joinville - Náutico Marcílio Dias	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WLWLL
- Figueirense
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
20.02.26	Figueirense - Náutico Marcílio Dias	0:1 ✺
13.02.26	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Figueirense	1:0 ✺
06.02.26	Figueirense - Joinville	1:0 ✺
02.02.26	Carlos Renaux - Figueirense	1:0 ✺
25.01.26	Figueirense - Camboriú	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.8 LLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
06.02.26	Figueirense - Joinville	1:0
07.01.26	Joinville - Figueirense	2:3
Brazilian Copa Santa Catarina
23.11.25	Figueirense - Joinville	2:1
16.11.25	Joinville - Figueirense	1:4
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
11.01.25	Joinville - Figueirense	0:0
Brazilian Copa Santa Catarina
05.10.24	Joinville - Figueirense	0:0
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
24.01.24	Figueirense - Joinville	1:1

Joinville - Figueirense: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide