Match Info

I Lyga - Round 9

Date: 8 May 2026, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


Lithuania	LNK


	Jonava		Neptūnas

	1	X	2
	2.72	3.2	2.32
	2.86	3.3	2.32
	2.97	2.97	2.38	Watch
	2.7	3	2.3
	2.65	3.53	2.38
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.78 ↓ (3.3)	3.2 ↓ (3.33)	2.34 ↑ (2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jonava
32.7%

Draw
28.4%

Neptūnas
38.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.5%

27.2%

45.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.1%

26.8%

45.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jonava has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Jonava's performance.

Neptūnas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Neptūnas might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jonava than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Jonava that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Neptūnas than the current prediction. (+7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Neptūnas could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Jonava - Neptūnas Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
23', 0 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 7 and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Jonava won 2.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Neptūnas may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Neptūnas is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Jonava won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:10. (average 1.8:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Jonava won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:8. (average 2.3:2.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Neptunas	25	14	2	9	33:30	3	44
11	Jonava	25	7	6	12	28:33	-5	27

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FK Jonava
Lithuanian Division 2
02.05.26	Dainava Alytus - Jonava	3:0 ✺
Lithuanian Cup
29.04.26	Jonava - FA Šiauliai	0:4 ✺
Lithuanian Division 2
25.04.26	Jonava - Transinvest 2	4:0 ✺
19.04.26	FA Šiauliai B - Jonava	2:2 ✺
04.04.26	Jonava - Kauno Žalgiris 2	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 LLWTT
- FC Neptūnas Klaipėda
Lithuanian Division 2
02.05.26	Neptūnas - Žalgiris Vilnius 2	2:1 ✺
25.04.26	Atmosfera Mažeikiai - Neptūnas	1:3 ✺
Lithuanian Cup
22.04.26	Neptūnas - Džiugas Telšiai	0:2 ✺
Lithuanian Division 2
17.04.26	Neptūnas - BFA Vilnius	1:3 ✺
04.04.26	Babrungas Plungė - Neptūnas	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Lithuanian Division 2
30.08.25	Jonava - Neptūnas	0:2
03.05.25	Neptūnas - Jonava	0:2
08.11.23	Jonava - Neptūnas	2:5
30.06.23	Neptūnas - Jonava	2:0
04.08.21	Neptūnas - Jonava	0:2
03.04.21	Jonava - Neptūnas	5:1

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