Match Info

I Lyga - Round 26

Date: 4 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Jonavos centrinis stadionas (Jonava)

Where to Watch on TV:


Latvia	Futbols TV


	Jonava		Nevėžis

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.65	3.3
	2.09	3.01	3.4
	1.09	8.86	15.00	Watch
	1.76	3.82	3.72
	1.87	3.65	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.73 ↓ (2.3)	4.6 ↑ (3.33)	5.74 ↑ (2.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jonava
59.6%

Draw
22.4%

Nevėžis
18%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.6%

27.4%

33%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.7%

26.7%

32.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jonava has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+20%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Jonava's performance.

Nevėžis has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-15%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Nevėžis might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jonava than the current prediction. (-18.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Jonava that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nevėžis than the current prediction. (+14.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Nevėžis could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Jonava - Nevėžis Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Jonava (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sivickas V. (G) 12. Cerkauskas L. 44. Dombrauskis T. 92. Dubickas A. 19. Kabosius A. 11. Mickevicius E. 14. Nainys P. 21. Nikonovas G. 9. Raginis A. 23. Rocys A. (C) 77. Stulga A.	34. Granauskas R. (G) 5. Avizovas U. 9. Kouoh B. 22. Lukosevicius A. (C) 30. Monkelis M. 99. Rukuiza K. 32. Shaibu V. 4. Soroka R. 18. Tymoshenko I. 47. Veldman M. 35. Zuperka R. A.
Substitutes
80. Bersta K. A. 16. Matuzas M. (G) 7. Mironcikas M. 3. Muka D. 6. Olsauskas K. 45. Petrusevicius D. (G) 70. Rusnius R. 2. Sungaila V.	23. Havryliuk N. 28. Lozano J. 12. Manasyan R. (G) 3. Martinkus N. 14. Mezinis G. 8. Mikuckis R. 11. Mohil Y. 91. Petkevicius M. 1. Urbonas E. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
5', 1 - 0, Nainys P. ⚽,
18', Mickevicius E. 🟨,
32', 2 - 0, Mickevicius E. ⚽,
35', Zuperka R. A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
59', 🟨,
85', 2 - 1, ⚽,
87', 2 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 6 and 13).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Jonava won 1.

Jonava is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Nevėžis's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Nevėžis may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Nevėžis has had a series of home games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

We predict that Jonava will win today's game, with odds of 2.29.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Jonava won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 6:10. (average 1:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Jonava won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:2. (average 2:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FK Jonava
Lithuanian Division 2
26.09.25	FA Šiauliai B - Jonava	0:3 ✺
20.09.25	Jonava - Tauras Tauragė	1:0 ✺
14.09.25	Panevėžys 2 - Jonava	0:2 ✺
30.08.25	Jonava - Neptūnas	0:2 ✺
23.08.25	Hegelmann Litauen 2 - Jonava	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.2 WWWLW
- FK Nevėžis
Lithuanian Division 2
26.09.25	Nevėžis - Tauras Tauragė	0:5 ✺
19.09.25	Neptūnas - Nevėžis	1:0 ✺
12.09.25	Nevėžis - Babrungas Plungė	1:1 ✺
29.08.25	Nevėžis - BE1 NFA Kaunas	0:0 ✺
22.08.25	Nevėžis - Transinvest	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 LLTTL

Latest Head to Head

Lithuanian Division 2
30.05.25	Nevėžis - Jonava	1:0
04.11.23	Jonava - Nevėžis	0:0
23.06.23	Nevėžis - Jonava	5:0
31.10.20	Nevėžis - Jonava	2:0
26.06.20	Jonava - Nevėžis	1:0
03.07.19	Jonava - Nevėžis	5:2

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