Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Apertura - Round 8

Date: 27 March 2025, Thursday

Location: Estadio Parque Artigas Las Piedras (Las Piedras)

Referee: Gonzalez L. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
Russia	Viju+ Sport
South-america	Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Latinoamerica
Uruguay	VTV+
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Inter
World	Disney+


	Juventud de Las Piedras		Peñarol de Montevideo

	1	X	2
	4.5	3.9	1.57	Watch
	4.6	3.5	1.68
	5	3.9	1.61	Watch
	5.19	3.93	1.62
	5	3.5	1.67
	5	3.96	1.62	Watch
	5	3.9	1.61
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.9 ↓ (5.68)	3.8 ↓ (3.95)	1.63 ↑ (1.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Juventud de Las Piedras
18.9%

Draw
24.3%

Peñarol de Montevideo
56.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

16.4%

23.6%

60%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.2%

18.3%

46.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Juventud de Las Piedras has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

Peñarol de Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Juventud de Las Piedras than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Peñarol de Montevideo than the current prediction. (-10.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Peñarol de Montevideo, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	11.1%	66.7%

Juventud de Las Piedras - Peñarol de Montevideo Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Juventud will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Peñarol will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Peñarol: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sosa S. (G) 24. Barrandeguy F. 4. Gauthier V. 20. Rodriguez M. 23. Mas E. 22. Chagas R. 32. Rossi I. 37. Peralta R. 80. Urretaviscaya J. (C) 7. Larregui B. 9. Rodriguez A.	29. Campana M. (G) 20. Milans P. 2. Leo Coelho 34. Herrera N. 15. Olivera M. (C) 5. Sosa I. 19. Remedi E. 80. David Terans 10. Fernandez L. 25. Baez J. 11. Silvera M.
Substitutes
18. Aja J. 17. Boselli M. 14. Duffard Villarreal M. N. 28. Leguizamon N. 5. Morosini D. 21. Perez F. 30. Pirez P. 77. Rodriguez T. 12. Varese F. (G) 11. Vigo F.	9. Avenatti F. 7. Cabrera J. 12. De Amores G. (G) 27. Lucas Hernandez 77. Machado A. 18. Mayada C. 23. Mendez J. 6. Perez R. 4. Rodriguez J. 8. Villalba H.
Coaches
Monarriz D.	Aguirre D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
45+2', Baez J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Baez J. ↓, Mayada C. ↑,
46', David Terans ↓, Cabrera J. ↑,
46', Mas E. 🟨,
55', 0 - 1, Fernandez L. (Pen),
63', Remedi E. ↓, Perez R. ↑,
63', Peralta R. ↓, Boselli M. ↑,
69', Gauthier V. 🟨,
69', Larregui B. ↓, Leguizamon N. ↑,
69', Chagas R. ↓, Vigo F. ↑,
75', 0 - 2, Herrera N. ⚽, Leo Coelho (A),
78', Silvera M. ↓, Machado A. ↑,
84', Barrandeguy F. ↓, Rodriguez T. ↑,
86', Sosa I. ↓, Villalba H. ↑,

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will play in this match (ranked 2 and 14).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Juventud won 0.

Juventud is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Peñarol is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

In this match Peñarol is a favorite.

Our prediction for today's Juventud to win the game is with odds 4.78.

Last 14 head-to-head matches Juventud won 1 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 9 matches and goals 6:26 (average 0.4:1.9).

Including matches at home between the teams Juventud won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 4:10 (average 0.6:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Juventud de Las Piedras
Uruguayan Primera Division
20.03.25	Montevideo City Torque - Juventud de Las Piedras	2:4 ✺
16.03.25	Juventud de Las Piedras - Defensor Sporting	2:1 ✺
08.03.25	Cerro - Juventud de Las Piedras	2:1 ✺
23.02.25	Juventud de Las Piedras - Montevideo Wanderers	1:0 ✺
16.02.25	Miramar Misiones - Juventud de Las Piedras	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.8 WWLWW
- Peñarol de Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
20.03.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Liverpool Montevideo	0:3 ✺
15.03.25	Plaza Colonia - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:0 ✺
09.03.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Racing Montevideo	0:2 ✺
23.02.25	River Plate Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:1 ✺
15.02.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Boston River	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLTT

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
21.09.19	Juventud de Las Piedras - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:1
18.08.19	Peñarol de Montevideo - Juventud de Las Piedras	0:0
03.03.19	Peñarol de Montevideo - Juventud de Las Piedras	4:1
11.11.17	Peñarol de Montevideo - Juventud de Las Piedras	1:0
08.04.17	Juventud de Las Piedras - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:2
25.09.16	Juventud de Las Piedras - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:0
04.06.16	Juventud de Las Piedras - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:1

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