Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Apertura - Round 15

Date: 18 May 2025, Sunday

Location: Parque Abraham Paladino (Montevideo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Disney+
South-america	Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Latinoamerica


	Progreso		Juventud de Las Piedras

	1	X	2
	3.2	3.3	2.1	Watch
	3	3.25	2.2
	3.1	3.35	2.18	Watch
	3.33	3.5	2.21
	3.08	3.37	2.25
	3.1	3.2	2.2
	3.07	3.36	2.24	Watch
	3.1	3.35	2.18
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.12 ↑ (3)	3.34 ↑ (3.25)	2.2 (2.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Progreso
29.8%

Draw
27.9%

Juventud de Las Piedras
42.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.4%

28.1%

41.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.4%

27.2%

42.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Progreso has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Juventud de Las Piedras has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Progreso than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Juventud de Las Piedras than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Progreso - Juventud de Las Piedras Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gentilio N. (G) 16. Trasante G. 13. Carroso H. 23. Olivera Moreira L. N. 6. Silvera F. 5. Pinheiro A. 8. Colombino A. 25. Garcia A. 29. Fernandez N. 7. Moreira A. 9. Gonzalez N.	1. Sosa S. (G) 24. Barrandeguy F. 20. Rodriguez M. 4. Gauthier V. 23. Mas E. 37. Peralta R. 32. Rossi I. 22. Chagas R. 80. Urretaviscaya J. 7. Larregui B. 9. Rodriguez A.
Substitutes
28. Asconeguy D. 19. Cougo A. 31. Giraldez T. 10. Lopez P. 4. Martin M. 35. Mendez F. (G) 32. Ordonez C. 21. Rivero J. 18. Silva G. 17. Sosa F.	18. Aja J. 27. Boselli M. 14. Duffard Villarreal M. N. 25. Gomez N. 5. Morosini D. 21. Perez F. 30. Pirez P. 35. Principe A. 31. Rodriguez I. 12. Varese F. (G)
Coaches
Larrea A.	Monarriz D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
25', 0 - 1, Chagas R. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
57', Barrandeguy F. 🟨,
63', Moreira A. ↓, Cougo A. ↑,
63', Pinheiro A. ↓, Sosa F. ↑,
64', 0 - 2, Rodriguez A. ⚽,
66', Peralta R. ↓, Perez F. ↑,
66', Larregui B. ↓, Rodriguez I. ↑,
70', Fernandez N. ↓, Rivero J. ↑,
70', Gonzalez N. ↓, Lopez P. ↑,
73', Garcia A. 🟨,
74', Colombino A. 🟨,
76', 1 - 2, Mas E. (Own goal),
78', Carroso H. 🟨,
81', Cougo A. 🟨,
81', Silvera F. ↓, Giraldez T. ↑,
81', Barrandeguy F. ↓, Morosini D. ↑,
85', Rodriguez M. ↓, Aja J. ↑,
90+4', Cougo A. 🟨,
90+6', Olivera Moreira L. N. 🟨,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 11 and 3).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Progreso won 2.

Progreso has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Juventud is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Juventud will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Progreso won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 15:11. (average 1.4:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Progreso won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:4. (average 0.8:0.7).

Last Results with these Odds

Juventud de Las Piedras - the odds 2.2 are the expected chance of winning is 41.49%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Progreso
Uruguayan Primera Division
04.05.25	Montevideo City Torque - Progreso	2:3 ✺
27.04.25	Progreso - Liverpool Montevideo	0:2 ✺
20.04.25	Defensor Sporting - Progreso	1:2 ✺
12.04.25	Progreso - Plaza Colonia	1:1 ✺
06.04.25	Cerro - Progreso	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.8 WLWTT
- Juventud de Las Piedras
Uruguayan Primera Division
04.05.25	Juventud de Las Piedras - Liverpool Montevideo	1:0 ✺
26.04.25	Plaza Colonia - Juventud de Las Piedras	0:0 ✺
19.04.25	Juventud de Las Piedras - Racing Montevideo	1:0 ✺
13.04.25	River Plate Montevideo - Juventud de Las Piedras	1:0 ✺
05.04.25	Juventud de Las Piedras - Boston River	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 WTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Segunda Division
18.11.23	Progreso - Juventud de Las Piedras	2:1
07.07.23	Juventud de Las Piedras - Progreso	1:1
29.04.23	Juventud de Las Piedras - Progreso	1:5
06.08.22	Progreso - Juventud de Las Piedras	0:1
16.05.22	Juventud de Las Piedras - Progreso	0:0
16.04.22	Progreso - Juventud de Las Piedras	2:1
Uruguayan Primera Division
18.09.19	Juventud de Las Piedras - Progreso	1:2

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