Match Info

Division 1 - Norra - Round 22

Date: 17 September 2026, Thursday

Location: Jarfallavallen (Jarfalla)

Where to Watch on TV:


Sweden	Ettan Play


	Järfälla		Karlberg

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.30	3.60	1.85
	3.55	3.6	1.85
	3.58	3.91	1.86
	3.31	3.94	1.95	Watch
	3.45	3.85	1.83
	3.56	3.72	1.8	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.46 ↑ (2.92)	3.77 ↑ (3.58)	1.86 ↓ (2.09)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Järfälla
26.5%

Draw
24.3%

Karlberg
49.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.1%

25.4%

43.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.3%

24.8%

44.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Järfälla has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

Karlberg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Karlberg's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Järfälla than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Karlberg than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

Järfälla - Karlberg Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. von Feilitzen E. (G) 3. Akdemir N. 4. Aksoy Y. 27. Bangala D. 23. Danha C. F. 26. Dibaga D. 20. Drugge E. 17. Khalil A. 8. Medhin T N. 11. Ogestad O. 9. Wurtz A. (C)	1. Gkoulios A. (G) 17. Aslund H. 14. Fati A. 7. Fernandez H. 25. Hogberg F. 19. Jemal A. 18. Lalic M. 11. Mitku M. 12. Sequar A. (C) 24. Sietsema L. 3. Steen V.
Substitutes
28. Abdulle A. 1. Eide B. (G) 7. Fox C. 12. Markovski D. 24. Nisic K. 16. Sabery A. 6. Saweris P.	4. Backman A. 35. Bojang E. (G) 15. Hall V. 9. Jamshidi A. 16. Jansson M. 8. Negash N. 2. Nieminen Eriksson F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
13', 1 - 0, Wurtz A. ⚽,
2nd Half (4 - 0)
46', Sietsema L. ↓, Negash N. ↑,
46', Fati A. ↓, Nieminen Eriksson F. ↑,
49', Drugge E. 🟨,
54', Wurtz A. ↓, Abdulle A. ↑,
61', Danha C. F. 🟨,
62', Ogestad O. ↓, Fox C. ↑,
63', Khalil A. ↓, Sabery A. ↑,
67', 2 - 0, Danha C. F. ⚽,
74', 3 - 0, Danha C. F. ⚽,
75', Sequar A. ↓, Hall V. ↑,
79', Fernandez H. ↓, Backman A. ↑,
80', Dibaga D. ↓, Markovski D. ↑,
80', Akdemir N. ↓, Nisic K. ↑,
82', 🟨,
82', Markovski D. 🟨,
90+2', 4 - 0, Sabery A. ⚽,
90+4', 5 - 0, Fox C. ⚽,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 15 in the zone Relegation and 9).

Järfälla is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Karlberg has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Karlberg could have a small edge in this match.

We predict that Karlberg will win today's game, with odds of 1.88.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Järfälla won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:11. (average 1.4:2.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Järfälla won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:4. (average 1:2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Karlbergs	25	9	5	11	33:41	-8	32
15	Jarfalla	25	5	4	16	33:55	-22	19

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Järfälla
Swedish Division 1 Norra
12.09.26	Gefle - Järfälla	3:1 ✺
05.09.26	Järfälla - FBK Karlstad	0:3 ✺
29.08.26	Järfälla - Assyriska Föreningen	0:2 ✺
21.08.26	Stockholm Internazionale - Järfälla	2:0 ✺
15.08.26	Sollentuna - Järfälla	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Karlbergs BK
Swedish Division 1 Norra
12.09.26	Karlberg - Arlanda	1:0 ✺
06.09.26	Piteå - Karlberg	3:0 ✺
31.08.26	Hammarby TFF - Karlberg	0:0 ✺
23.08.26	Karlberg - AFC Eskilstuna	0:3 ✺
Svenska Cupen
18.08.26	Karlberg - Brage	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.8 WLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Swedish Division 1 Norra
16.05.26	Karlberg - Järfälla	1:3
Swedish Division 2 - Norra Svealand
17.09.23	Järfälla - Karlberg	1:1
18.05.23	Karlberg - Järfälla	0:1
17.10.21	Järfälla - Karlberg	1:3
14.08.21	Karlberg - Järfälla	6:1

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