Match Info

Veikkausliiga - Relegation - Final

Date: 26 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Arto Tolsa Areena (Kotka)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Ruutu+


	KTP Kotka		TPS

	1	X	2
	1.73	4.1	3.4	Watch
				Watch
	1.90	4.01	3.59	Watch
	1.84	3.95	3.69	Watch
	1.85	3.8	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.83 ↓ (2.16)	3.97 ↑ (3.66)	3.61 ↑ (2.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

KTP Kotka
50.8%

Draw
23.4%

TPS
25.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.8%

25.3%

31.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44%

24.6%

31%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

KTP Kotka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in KTP Kotka's performance.

TPS has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and TPS might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for KTP Kotka than the current prediction. (-6.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with KTP Kotka that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for TPS than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that TPS could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

KTP Kotka - TPS Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. KTP will win (votes: 6 - 75%). TPS will win (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for KTP: 45% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. KTP (votes: 2 - 66.7%). TPS (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Linner O. (G) 26. Paavola M. 4. Toivio J. (C) 34. Linner A. 21. Sumusalo M. 6. Tahmbi N. 24. Toivonen A. 77. Weckstrom L. 8. Kauko J. 10. Forsell P. 28. Rangel	35. Lauri D. (G) 2. Haggstrom O. 4. Sairinen A. 17. Sihvonen A. (C) 6. Dahlstrom B. 13. Konkkola M. 8. Bostrom A. 23. Vauhkonen E. 26. Ikonen L. 9. Helen O. 29. Muzaci A.
Substitutes
44. Akpudje J. 15. Edlund C. 19. Glasson M. 1. Koski J. (G) 11. Lahdensuo T. 14. Lehtiranta J. 7. Makela J. 18. Seck A. 37. Tanaka A.	21. Benga S. 22. Coulibaly A. 11. Dahlfors O. 12. Hakanpaa O. (G) 20. Kauppila M. 14. Kawakita E. 16. Pohtio V. 10. Riski Ri. 28. Vakiparta T.
Coaches
Virta O.	Pinol I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
3', 0 - 1, Helen O. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
46', Toivonen A. ↓, Seck A. ↑,
46', Paavola M. ↓, Lahdensuo T. ↑,
49', 1 - 1, Rangel ⚽, Kauko J. (A),
56', 1 - 2, Muzaci A. (Pen),
58', Seck A. 🟨,
61', Vauhkonen E. ↓, Dahlfors O. ↑,
61', Konkkola M. ↓, Kauppila M. ↑,
66', Bostrom A. 🟨,
67', Sumusalo M. ↓, Glasson M. ↑,
72', Tahmbi N. 🟨,
74', 2 - 2, Tahmbi N. ⚽, Forsell P. (A),
79', Lahdensuo T. 🟨,
80', Tahmbi N. ↓, Akpudje J. ↑,
82', Bostrom A. (Pen),
83', Akpudje J. 🟨,
84', Linner O. 🟨,
84', Kauko J. 🟨,
84', 2 - 3, Bostrom A. (Pen),
88', Bostrom A. ↓, Kawakita E. ↑,
89', Linner A. 🟨,
90+4', Helen O. ↓, Riski Ri. ↑,
90+4', Haggstrom O. ↓, Benga S. ↑,

Preview

1st leg result: 0-3. 2nd leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, KTP won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

KTP could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in KTP: Tarvonen A. (Injury)

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, KTP won 5 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 25:24. (average 1.6:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, KTP won 1 match, drew 5 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 9:13. (average 1:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- KTP Kotka
Finnish Veikkausliiga
23.10.25	TPS - KTP Kotka	3:0 ✺
18.10.25	Haka - KTP Kotka	1:2 ✺
04.10.25	KTP Kotka - IFK Mariehamn	1:1 ✺
27.09.25	Oulu - KTP Kotka	0:2 ✺
19.09.25	KTP Kotka - FF Jaro	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 LWTWL
- TPS
Finnish Veikkausliiga
23.10.25	TPS - KTP Kotka	3:0 ✺
Finnish Ykkosliiga
18.10.25	TPS - Lahti	3:3 ✺
04.10.25	Salon Palloilijat - TPS	1:0 ✺
27.09.25	TPS - JIPPO	0:1 ✺
19.09.25	JäPS - TPS	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WTLLT

Latest Head to Head

Finnish Veikkausliiga
23.10.25	TPS - KTP Kotka	3:0
Finnish Ykkosliiga
19.10.24	KTP Kotka - TPS	1:1
17.07.24	KTP Kotka - TPS	1:2
18.05.24	TPS - KTP Kotka	1:4
Finnish Ykkonen
08.10.22	KTP Kotka - TPS	0:1
04.07.22	TPS - KTP Kotka	1:3
28.04.22	KTP Kotka - TPS	0:0

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