Match Info

Veikkausliiga - Relegation Group

Date: 4 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Arto Tolsa Areena (Kotka)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Ruutu+
World	Onefootball


	KTP Kotka		IFK Mariehamn

	1	X	2
	1.53	4.75	4.75	Watch
	1.57	4.33	5
	1.52	4.65	5.15
	1.52	4.59	6.34
	1.74	3.96	4.23	Watch
	1.51	4.65	5.26	Watch
	1.57	4.4	4.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.57 ↓ (1.76)	4.48 ↑ (4.04)	5.09 ↑ (4.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

KTP Kotka
60.3%

Draw
21.1%

IFK Mariehamn
18.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.8%

23.4%

22.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.1%

24.8%

21.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

KTP Kotka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in KTP Kotka's performance.

IFK Mariehamn has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for KTP Kotka than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for IFK Mariehamn than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	22.2%	44.4%

KTP Kotka - IFK Mariehamn Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. KTP will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Mariehamn will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mariehamn: 11.9% – 76.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Mariehamn (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Mariehamn (2.39) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Mariehamn (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Linner O. (G) 7. Makela J. 21. Sumusalo M. 34. Linner A. 4. Toivio J. (C) 26. Paavola M. 10. Forsell P. 8. Kauko J. 37. Tanaka A. 24. Toivonen A. 28. Rangel	32. Riikonen M. (G) 33. Enqvist D. 14. Fonsell M. 4. Lindgren P. (C) 27. El-Kathemi E. 6. Kujasalo N. 23. Heyden J. 20. Patut E. 16. Huttunen A. 7. Adedoyin K. 9. Nunez W.
Substitutes
44. Akpudje J. 42. Aspegren F. 19. Glasson M. 1. Koski J. (G) 11. Lahdensuo T. 14. Lehtiranta J. 18. Seck A. 9. Tarvonen A. 77. Weckstrom L.	43. Andersson L. 8. Dahlstrom S. 17. Holmberg R. 21. Lundberg A. 1. Lund K. (G) 28. Nissinen J. 2. Nurmi N. 30. Okereke E.
Coaches
Virta O.	Williams G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
20', 0 - 1, Heyden J. ⚽, Huttunen A. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
47', Riikonen M. 🟨,
47', Rangel 🟨,
50', 1 - 1, Rangel ⚽,
60', El-Kathemi E. ↓, Nissinen J. ↑,
60', Nunez W. ↓, Andersson L. ↑,
60', Huttunen A. ↓, Dahlstrom S. ↑,
73', Rangel ↓, Tarvonen A. ↑,
73', Forsell P. ↓, Aspegren F. ↑,
77', Patut E. ↓, Holmberg R. ↑,
79', Adedoyin K. 🟨,
81', Kauko J. 🟨,
84', Toivonen A. ↓, Seck A. ↑,
84', Tarvonen A. ↓, Weckstrom L. ↑,
88', Kauko J. ↓, Glasson M. ↑,
89', Kujasalo N. ↓, Nurmi N. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, KTP won 1.

KTP is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Mariehamn has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Mariehamn may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, KTP is a strong favorite.

There will not play in KTP: Tahmbi N. (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Mariehamn: Kivikko M. (Inactive) Raitanen P. (Knee Injury) Toivonen E. (Injury)

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, KTP won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 13:26. (average 1:2).

Including home matches between the teams, KTP won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:10. (average 1:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- KTP Kotka
Finnish Veikkausliiga
27.09.25	Oulu - KTP Kotka	0:2 ✺
19.09.25	KTP Kotka - FF Jaro	1:2 ✺
13.09.25	VPS Vaasa - KTP Kotka	2:1 ✺
31.08.25	KTP Kotka - HJK	1:4 ✺
22.08.25	VPS Vaasa - KTP Kotka	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WLLLL
- IFK Mariehamn
Finnish Veikkausliiga
28.09.25	FF Jaro - IFK Mariehamn	2:3 ✺
21.09.25	IFK Mariehamn - VPS Vaasa	2:1 ✺
13.09.25	IFK Mariehamn - Haka	1:1 ✺
31.08.25	Ilves - IFK Mariehamn	2:1 ✺
24.08.25	HJK - IFK Mariehamn	8:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.3 WWTLL

Latest Head to Head

Finnish Veikkausliiga
16.08.25	IFK Mariehamn - KTP Kotka	3:0
31.05.25	KTP Kotka - IFK Mariehamn	2:2
Finnish Veikkausliiga Liiga Cup
22.02.25	IFK Mariehamn - KTP Kotka	1:2
Finnish Veikkausliiga
21.10.23	KTP Kotka - IFK Mariehamn	0:2
01.07.23	IFK Mariehamn - KTP Kotka	0:0
22.04.23	KTP Kotka - IFK Mariehamn	2:1
Finnish Veikkausliiga Liiga Cup
12.02.23	IFK Mariehamn - KTP Kotka	1:1

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