Match Info

Veikkausliiga - Relegation Group

Date: 27 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Raatin stadion (Oulu)

Referee: Kontinen J. (Fin)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Ruutu+
World	Onefootball


	Oulu		KTP Kotka

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.6	3.1	Watch
	2.1	3.7	3.1
	2.12	4.09	3.18
	2.11	3.72	3.12	Watch
	2.13	3.8	3.13	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.11 ↑ (1.89)	3.78 ↓ (4.03)	3.13 ↓ (3.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Oulu
44.8%

Draw
25%

KTP Kotka
30.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.5%

23.6%

25.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.9%

23%

25.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Oulu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Oulu's form might have worsened.

KTP Kotka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Oulu than the current prediction. (+7.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Oulu, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for KTP Kotka than the current prediction. (-5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	28.6%	0%

Oulu - KTP Kotka Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Oulu will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Kinn T. (C) 5. Pitkanen M. 75. Say S. 4. Jatta M. 3. Lehtonen J. 37. Paananen J. 19. Paananen A. 18. Cassama A. 14. Jokelainen N. 26. Korkko J. 22. Kaukua T.	31. Linner O. (G) 34. Linner A. 4. Toivio J. (C) 21. Sumusalo M. 26. Paavola M. 8. Kauko J. 37. Tanaka A. 7. Makela J. 24. Toivonen A. 28. Rangel 10. Forsell P.
Substitutes
20. Azongnitode C. 31. Babb M. 11. Ghezali L. 8. Ojala M. 9. Rennicks J. 99. Schulz N. (G) 6. Silas C.	44. Akpudje J. 16. Diakite M. (G) 19. Glasson M. 1. Koski J. (G) 11. Lahdensuo T. 14. Lehtiranta J. 18. Seck A. 6. Tahmbi N. 9. Tarvonen A.
Coaches
Isokangas M.	Virta O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
16', Lehtonen J. 🟨,
19', Linner A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
52', 0 - 1, Rangel (Pen),
54', Jokelainen N. 🟨,
59', Tanaka A. 🟨,
60', Jatta M. ↓, Ojala M. ↑,
60', Korkko J. ↓, Rennicks J. ↑,
64', Rangel ↓, Tarvonen A. ↑,
72', Tanaka A. ↓, Tahmbi N. ↑,
72', Sumusalo M. ↓, Lehtiranta J. ↑,
75', 0 - 2, Makela J. ⚽, Toivonen A. (A),
78', Kaukua T. ↓, Ghezali L. ↑,
82', Say S. 🟨,
86', Forsell P. ↓, Glasson M. ↑,
90+1', Tahmbi N. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Oulu won 5.

Recent performances by Oulu have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

KTP has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Recently, Oulu has had a series of away games.

Oulu might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Oulu: Barrow D. (Injury)

There will not play in KTP: Aspegren F. (Yellow Cards)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Oulu won 14 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 33:14. (average 1.7:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Oulu won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 15:7. (average 1.4:0.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AC Oulu
Finnish Veikkausliiga
19.09.25	Haka - Oulu	0:1 ✺
14.09.25	FF Jaro - Oulu	1:2 ✺
31.08.25	Oulu - Haka	3:2 ✺
25.08.25	Gnistan - Oulu	3:2 ✺
Finnish Cup
21.08.25	HJK - Oulu	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 WWWLL
- KTP Kotka
Finnish Veikkausliiga
19.09.25	KTP Kotka - FF Jaro	1:2 ✺
13.09.25	VPS Vaasa - KTP Kotka	2:1 ✺
31.08.25	KTP Kotka - HJK	1:4 ✺
22.08.25	VPS Vaasa - KTP Kotka	3:2 ✺
16.08.25	IFK Mariehamn - KTP Kotka	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Finnish Veikkausliiga
13.07.25	Oulu - KTP Kotka	3:2
02.05.25	KTP Kotka - Oulu	1:3
29.09.23	Oulu - KTP Kotka	2:0
22.07.23	Oulu - KTP Kotka	3:1
Finnish Cup
05.07.23	KTP Kotka - Oulu	1:2
Finnish Veikkausliiga
05.04.23	KTP Kotka - Oulu	0:2
31.10.21	Oulu - KTP Kotka	2:1

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