Match Info

Veikkausliiga - Relegation - Final

Date: 23 October 2025, Thursday

Location: Veritas Stadion (Turku)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Ruutu+
World	Onefootball


	TPS		KTP Kotka

	1	X	2
	3.1	3	2.2	Watch
	3.2	3.05	2.3	Watch
	3.39	3.12	2.31
	3.44	2.91	2.32	Watch
	3.11	3.25	2.28	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.25 ↑ (2.97)	3.07 ↑ (3.06)	2.28 ↓ (2.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

TPS
28.7%

Draw
30.4%

KTP Kotka
40.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.9%

30%

39.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31%

30.1%

39%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

TPS has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

KTP Kotka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for TPS than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for KTP Kotka than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
44.4%	33.3%	22.2%

TPS - KTP Kotka Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. TPS will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). KTP will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for TPS: 11.9% – 76.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. KTP (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
35. Lauri D. (G) 2. Haggstrom O. 4. Sairinen A. 17. Sihvonen A. (C) 6. Dahlstrom B. 26. Ikonen L. 8. Bostrom A. 23. Vauhkonen E. 13. Konkkola M. 29. Muzaci A. 9. Helen O.	31. Linner O. (G) 4. Toivio J. (C) 34. Linner A. 21. Sumusalo M. 7. Makela J. 26. Paavola M. 8. Kauko J. 37. Tanaka A. 42. Aspegren F. 28. Rangel 10. Forsell P.
Substitutes
21. Benga S. 22. Coulibaly A. 11. Dahlfors O. 12. Hakanpaa O. (G) 20. Kauppila M. 14. Kawakita E. 16. Pohtio V. 10. Riski Ri. 28. Vakiparta T.	44. Akpudje J. 19. Glasson M. 1. Koski J. (G) 11. Lahdensuo T. 14. Lehtiranta J. 18. Seck A. 6. Tahmbi N. 24. Toivonen A. 77. Weckstrom L.
Coaches
Pinol I.	Virta O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
31', Aspegren F. 🟨,
34', Paavola M. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
58', Aspegren F. 🟨,
63', Tanaka A. ↓, Toivonen A. ↑,
63', Rangel ↓, Weckstrom L. ↑,
73', Dahlstrom B. ↓, Coulibaly A. ↑,
73', Vauhkonen E. ↓, Kauppila M. ↑,
78', 1 - 0, Muzaci A. ⚽,
84', Paavola M. ↓, Lehtiranta J. ↑,
84', Forsell P. ↓, Glasson M. ↑,
85', 2 - 0, Helen O. ⚽, Coulibaly A. (A),
87', 3 - 0, Helen O. ⚽, Kauppila M. (A),
88', Konkkola M. ↓, Riski Ri. ↑,
90+4', Haggstrom O. ↓, Dahlfors O. ↑,

Preview

1st leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, TPS won 2.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

KTP is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in KTP: Sumusalo M. (Yellow Cards) Tarvonen A. (Injury)

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, TPS won 4 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 21:25. (average 1.4:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, TPS won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 8:16. (average 1.3:2.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- TPS
Finnish Ykkosliiga
18.10.25	TPS - Lahti	3:3 ✺
04.10.25	Salon Palloilijat - TPS	1:0 ✺
27.09.25	TPS - JIPPO	0:1 ✺
19.09.25	JäPS - TPS	1:1 ✺
14.09.25	Klubi 04 - TPS	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 TLLTW
- KTP Kotka
Finnish Veikkausliiga
18.10.25	Haka - KTP Kotka	1:2 ✺
04.10.25	KTP Kotka - IFK Mariehamn	1:1 ✺
27.09.25	Oulu - KTP Kotka	0:2 ✺
19.09.25	KTP Kotka - FF Jaro	1:2 ✺
13.09.25	VPS Vaasa - KTP Kotka	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 WTWLL

Latest Head to Head

Finnish Ykkosliiga
19.10.24	KTP Kotka - TPS	1:1
17.07.24	KTP Kotka - TPS	1:2
18.05.24	TPS - KTP Kotka	1:4
Finnish Ykkonen
08.10.22	KTP Kotka - TPS	0:1
04.07.22	TPS - KTP Kotka	1:3
28.04.22	KTP Kotka - TPS	0:0
Finnish Veikkausliiga
14.11.20	TPS - KTP Kotka	1:1

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