Match Info

Ykkosliiga

Date: 19 July 2025, Saturday

Location: Brahenkentta (Helsinki)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Ruutu+


	KaPa		Lahti

	1	X	2
				Watch
	5.7	4.85	1.41	Watch
	6.24	5.18	1.43
	5.66	4.69	1.47	Watch
	6.28	4.9	1.39	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.97 ↓ (7.11)	4.91 ↓ (5.38)	1.43 ↑ (1.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

KaPa
15.6%

Draw
19%

Lahti
65.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

13.1%

17.3%

69.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

12.5%

16.5%

72.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

KaPa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

Lahti has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for KaPa than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lahti than the current prediction. (+7.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Lahti could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

KaPa - Lahti Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. KaPa (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.75 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Piispa A. (G) 9. Haapiainen W. 4. Hietalahti P. 23. Huovinen J. 31. Jouhi A. 27. Kallio E. 25. Kuningas M. 14. Lika Y. 5. Lindberg P. 11. Manneh F. 6. Nurmi N.	31. Maukonen O. (G) 5. Casagrande P. 4. David 15. Hasa N. 95. Kante A. 77. Karkulowski T. 11. Koskinen O. 19. Martim Augusto 20. Muzinga J. 6. Pami M. 3. Sans R.
Substitutes
17. Anini S. 30. Collin T. (G) 12. Herronen S. 8. Huhtamaki R. 7. Leinonen N. 18. Valakari T.	24. Babiker A. 23. Huovila V. 25. Inkinen T. 18. Jokiranta V. 14. Laamanen E. 9. Lindholm A. 8. Peltola A. 1. Tiainen J. (G) 21. Vainionpaa M.
Coaches
Lummepuro L.	Pereira G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
35', Kuningas M. 🟨,
41', Casagrande P. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
58', Jouhi A. 🟨,
61', Haapiainen W. ↓, Anini S. ↑,
68', Hasa N. ↓, Huovila V. ↑,
71', 0 - 1, Huovila V. ⚽,
73', Huovinen J. 🟨,
74', Huovinen J. ↓, Leinonen N. ↑,
77', Muzinga J. ↓, Peltola A. ↑,
77', Koskinen O. ↓, Lindholm A. ↑,
80', Peltola A. 🟨,
81', Anini S. 🟨,
83', Nurmi N. ↓, Herronen S. ↑,
86', 1 - 1, Herronen S. ⚽,
88', 2 - 1, Kallio E. ⚽, Lika Y. (A),
90+2', 🟨,
90+2', 2 - 2, Huovila V. ⚽,
90+5', Pereira G. 🟨,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 9 in the zone Ykkosliiga (Relegation) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Veikkausliiga (Promotion: )).

Recent form of KaPa has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Lahti is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In this match, Lahti is the clear favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, KaPa won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 4:8. (average 1.3:2.7).

Including home matches between the teams, KaPa won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:3. (average 0.5:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- KaPa
Finnish Ykkosliiga
13.07.25	Salon Palloilijat - KaPa	1:0 ✺
09.07.25	KaPa - PK-35 Vantaa	1:1 ✺
03.07.25	KaPa - TPS	4:2 ✺
29.06.25	JIPPO - KaPa	3:1 ✺
18.06.25	SJK Akatemia - KaPa	5:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.5 LTWLL
- FC Lahti
Finnish Ykkosliiga
14.07.25	Lahti - TPS	2:2 ✺
08.07.25	SJK Akatemia - Lahti	0:3 ✺
03.07.25	Lahti - JIPPO	3:2 ✺
28.06.25	Salon Palloilijat - Lahti	1:2 ✺
19.06.25	Lahti - Klubi 04	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 TWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Finnish Ykkosliiga
25.05.25	Lahti - KaPa	5:3
Finnish Ykkoscup
09.02.25	KaPa - Lahti	0:1
Finnish Cup
12.03.14	KaPa - Lahti	1:2 ET

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