Match Info

Division 1 - Norra - Round 28

Date: 25 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stadshagens IP (Vasastaden) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Sweden	15:00	Ettan Play


	Karlberg		Umeå

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.20	3.40	2.65
	2.25	3.55	2.55
	2.55	3.50	2.60
	2.35	3.66	2.7	Watch
	2.45	3.40	2.55
	2.30	3.76	2.72	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.35 ↑ (2.27)	3.55 ↓ (3.6)	2.63 ↑ (2.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Karlberg
39.1%

Draw
25.9%

Umeå
35%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

39.9%

25.1%

35.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.4%

25.4%

34.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Karlberg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Umeå has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Karlberg than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Umeå than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Karlberg - Umeå Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bojang E. (G) 7. Fernandez H. 25. Hogberg F. 19. Jemal A. 18. Lalic M. 11. Mitku M. 8. Negash N. 12. Sequar A. (C) 24. Sietsema L. 3. Steen V. 13. Sundgren R.	35. Pihlblad L. (G) 3. Andersson R. 26. Ekman D. (C) 33. Essombe Mambingo J. 17. Forsman S. 8. Godwin F. 9. Hadad R. 23. Johansson I. 2. Linden N. 7. Sandstrom A. 19. Shakir A.
Substitutes
17. Aslund H. 4. Backman A. 5. Basaric B. 15. Hall V. 9. Jamshidi A. 16. Jansson M. 2. Nieminen Eriksson F.	16. Bawa Z. 1. Eriksson P. (G) 5. Hakansson N. 24. Johansson V. 27. Rhodin F. 15. Wagnsson S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
45', 0 - 1, Andersson R. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
60', 1 - 1, Mitku M. ⚽,
63', Jemal A. 🟨,
69', Negash N. ↓, Jansson M. ↑,
69', Mitku M. ↓, Aslund H. ↑,
69', Hadad R. ↓, Bawa Z. ↑,
69', Sandstrom A. ↓, Wagnsson S. ↑,
82', Shakir A. ↓, Johansson V. ↑,
90', Johansson I. ↓, Rhodin F. ↑,
90', Fernandez H. ↓, Jamshidi A. ↑,
90', Lalic M. ↓, Hall V. ↑,

Preview

Two mid-table squads battle for vital points to solidify their season (ranked 10th and 8th).

Karlberg has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Umeå shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Umeå may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 3 head-to-head meetings, Karlberg has recorded 0 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 4:7 (averaging 1.3:2.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Karlberg against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with 2:2 goals.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Umea FC	28	11	6	11	40:44	-4	39
11	Karlbergs	28	9	7	12	38:48	-10	34

Last Results with these Odds

Karlberg - the odds 2.27 are the expected chance of winning is 39.86%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Karlbergs BK
Swedish Division 1 Norra
17.10.26	FBK Karlstad - Karlberg	3:1 ✺
10.10.26	Karlberg - Vasalund	3:3 ✺
02.10.26	Karlberg - Sollentuna	3:2 ✺
27.09.26	Karlstad - Karlberg	1:1 ✺
20.09.26	Karlberg - Stockholm Internazionale	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 LTWTL
- Umeå FC
Swedish Division 1 Norra
18.10.26	Umeå - Assyriska Föreningen	3:1 ✺
11.10.26	Järfälla - Umeå	1:2 ✺
04.10.26	Umeå - Hammarby TFF	2:1 ✺
27.09.26	Umeå - FBK Karlstad	1:3 ✺
20.09.26	Stocksund - Umeå	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.6 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Swedish Division 1 Norra
03.05.26	Umeå - Karlberg	2:1
29.09.24	Karlberg - Umeå	2:2
19.05.24	Umeå - Karlberg	3:1

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