Match Info

Division 1 - Norra - Round 24

Date: 27 September 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Umea Energi Arena (Umea) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Sweden	12:00	Ettan Play


	Umeå		FBK Karlstad

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.50	3.40	2.30
	2.28	3.4	2.65
	2.37	3.57	2.77
	2.4	3.65	2.64	Watch
	2.3	3.45	2.65
	2.39	3.64	2.66	Watch
	2.25	3.45	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.36 ↑ (2.18)	3.51 ↑ (3.5)	2.61 ↓ (2.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Umeå
38.9%

Draw
26.1%

FBK Karlstad
35.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

41.1%

25.6%

33.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.8%

24.6%

31.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Umeå has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

FBK Karlstad has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Umeå than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for FBK Karlstad than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

Umeå - FBK Karlstad Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Eriksson P. (G) 3. Andersson R. 16. Bawa Z. 26. Ekman D. (C) 33. Essombe Mambingo J. 17. Forsman S. 8. Godwin F. 23. Johansson I. 2. Linden N. 25. Njie M. 15. Wagnsson S.	20. Johansson V. (G) 18. Forsberg E. (C) 4. Fredriksson L. 26. Hagelberg A. 13. Hoiby J. 6. Marigliano C. 21. Navassardian E. 8. Oluwayemi M. 12. Sandstad A. 38. Steen L. 22. Tigerholm V.
Substitutes
20. Hassan H. 18. Hrastovina E. 22. Lindgren T. 35. Pihlblad L. (G) 7. Sandstrom A. 19. Shakir A. 12. Yeboah E.	14. Buisson B. 17. Olsson W. 3. Parleholt A. 7. Qassem M. 19. Rolandsson N. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
27', 0 - 1, Steen L. ⚽,
43', 1 - 1, Essombe Mambingo J. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
65', Johansson I. ↓, Sandstrom A. ↑,
65', Marigliano C. ↓, Olsson W. ↑,
65', Sandstad A. ↓, Parleholt A. ↑,
75', 1 - 2, Olsson W. ⚽,
80', Navassardian E. ↓, Buisson B. ↑,
80', Tigerholm V. ↓, Qassem M. ↑,
83', Wagnsson S. ↓, Shakir A. ↑,
83', Njie M. ↓, Hrastovina E. ↑,
87', 1 - 3, Olsson W. ⚽,
89', Godwin F. 🟨,

Preview

An intriguing matchup between a mid-ranked team and a top contender (ranked 10th and 6th).

Both teams look competitive and well-prepared heading into this encounter.

FBK Karlstad could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 3 head-to-head meetings, Umeå has recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 6:3 (averaging 2:1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Umeå against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 2:1 goals.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	FBK Karlstad	28	13	7	8	44:38	6	46
8	Umea FC	28	11	6	11	40:44	-4	39

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Umeå FC
Swedish Division 1 Norra
20.09.26	Stocksund - Umeå	0:3 ✺
16.09.26	Piteå - Umeå	0:2 ✺
13.09.26	Umeå - Stockholm Internazionale	0:4 ✺
06.09.26	Arlanda - Umeå	1:2 ✺
30.08.26	Umeå - Vasalund	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 WWLWW
- FBK Karlstad
Swedish Division 1 Norra
19.09.26	FBK Karlstad - Sollentuna	0:0 ✺
16.09.26	Karlstad - FBK Karlstad	0:0 ✺
12.09.26	FBK Karlstad - Vasalund	2:1 ✺
05.09.26	Järfälla - FBK Karlstad	0:3 ✺
30.08.26	FBK Karlstad - Piteå	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 TTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Swedish Division 1 Norra
17.05.26	FBK Karlstad - Umeå	1:1
12.10.24	FBK Karlstad - Umeå	1:3
04.05.24	Umeå - FBK Karlstad	2:1

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