Match Info

Chance Liga - 7th-10th places - Final

Date: 16 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Town Stadium Karvina (Karvina)

Referee: Orel P. (Cze)

Where to Watch on TV:


Czech-republic	Oneplay, Oneplay Sport 1


	Karviná		Sigma Olomouc

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.4	2.15	Watch
	3.33	3.55	2.22
	3.19	3.35	2.21	Watch
	3	3.3	2.15
	3.18	3.5	2.21	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.16 ↑ (2.82)	3.42 ↓ (3.44)	2.19 ↓ (2.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Karviná
29.7%

Draw
27.4%

Sigma Olomouc
42.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.5%

27.5%

38.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.2%

28.6%

40.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Karviná has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

Sigma Olomouc has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Karviná than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sigma Olomouc than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	33.3%	66.7%

Karviná - Sigma Olomouc Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Sigma will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Neuman V. (G) 24. Chytry J. 19. Milic N. 49. Camara S. 25. Fleisman J. (C) 4. Traore A. 8. Kristan J. 29. Fiala J. 31. Conde O. 9. Labik A. 26. Ezeh L.	29. Stoppen T. (G) 2. Sylla A. 21. Kral J. (C) 3. Lurvink L. 22. Hadas M. 88. Barath P. 39. Janosek D. 70. Ghali A. 23. Krivak F. 20. Grgic D. 14. Rusek A.
Substitutes
14. Ayaosi E. 6. Bohac S. 20. Kahuan Vinicius 30. Lapes J. (G) 3. Lawali Y. 34. Mrozek O. (G) 99. Prebsl F. 44. Skyba Y. 28. Valosek V. 2. Vavrik V.	47. Beran M. 77. Dolznikov A. 98. Hruska M. (G) 19. Jezierski J. 9. Kliment J. 25. Mikulenka M. 15. Palan R. 66. Siegl P. 6. Sip J. 13. Slama J. 7. Sturm D.
Coaches
Jarolim M.	Hapal P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
12', 1 - 0, Labik A. ⚽, Fiala J. (A),
41', 1 - 1, Rusek A. ⚽, Krivak F. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
61', Labik A. ↓, Prebsl F. ↑,
61', Grgic D. ↓, Sturm D. ↑,
61', Krivak F. ↓, Mikulenka M. ↑,
62', Conde O. ↓, Ayaosi E. ↑,
62', Kristan J. ↓, Bohac S. ↑,
64', 1 - 2, Lurvink L. ⚽, Janosek D. (A),
72', Fleisman J. 🟨,
79', Janosek D. ↓, Beran M. ↑,
82', Ezeh L. ↓, Kahuan Vinicius ↑,
86', Rusek A. ↓, Sip J. ↑,
86', Ghali A. ↓, Palan R. ↑,
90+3', Palan R. 🟨,
90+4', 1 - 3, Mikulenka M. ⚽, Sturm D. (A),

Preview

First leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Karviná won 2.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Karviná: Kacor P. (Yellow Cards) Samko D. (Yellow Cards) Sigut S. (Suspended) Storman R. (Injury)

There will not play in Sigma: Dembe J. (Knee Injury) Elbel J. (Suspended) Sejk V. (Yellow Cards) Tkac D. (Muscle Injury) Urica F. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Sigma: Spacil J. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Karviná won 2 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 24:39. (average 1.2:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Karviná won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 12:18. (average 1.2:1.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Sigma Olomouc	10	5	2	3	17:14	3	17

Last Results with these Odds

Karviná - the odds 2.82 are the expected chance of winning is 33.54%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Sigma Olomouc - the odds 2.43 are the expected chance of winning is 38.92%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- MFK Karviná
Czech 1 Liga
10.05.26	Pardubice - Karviná	1:3 ET ✺
02.05.26	Karviná - Pardubice	1:2 ✺
25.04.26	Karviná - Mladá Boleslav	0:3 ✺
Czech Cup
21.04.26	Karviná - Baník Ostrava	2:1 ✺
Czech 1 Liga
18.04.26	Dukla Prague - Karviná	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14 WLLWW
- Sigma Olomouc
Czech 1 Liga
10.05.26	Sigma Olomouc - Bohemians 1905	1:2 ET ✺
02.05.26	Bohemians 1905 - Sigma Olomouc	1:3 ✺
25.04.26	Slavia Prague - Sigma Olomouc	2:1 ✺
19.04.26	Sigma Olomouc - Slovácko	2:1 ✺
12.04.26	Pardubice - Sigma Olomouc	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Czech 1 Liga
15.03.26	Sigma Olomouc - Karviná	2:2
18.10.25	Karviná - Sigma Olomouc	1:1
05.04.25	Sigma Olomouc - Karviná	1:2
02.11.24	Karviná - Sigma Olomouc	2:1
25.11.23	Karviná - Sigma Olomouc	0:2
29.07.23	Sigma Olomouc - Karviná	3:1
13.03.22	Karviná - Sigma Olomouc	1:2

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