Match Info

Chance Liga - Round 30

Date: 18 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadion Juliska (Prague)

Referee: Pechanec O. (Cze)

Where to Watch on TV:


Czech-republic	Oneplay, Oneplay Sport 1


	Dukla Prague		Karviná

	1	X	2
	2.38	3.3	2.7	Watch
	2.32	3.25	2.92
	2.39	3.37	3.15
	2.42	3.39	2.81
	2.3	3.1	2.9
	2.47	3.43	2.81	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.38 ↓ (3)	3.31 ↓ (3.4)	2.88 ↑ (2.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dukla Prague
39.3%

Draw
28.3%

Karviná
32.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.7%

27.1%

42.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.4%

25.7%

40%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dukla Prague has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Dukla Prague's performance.

Karviná has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Karviná might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dukla Prague than the current prediction. (-6.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Dukla Prague that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Karviná than the current prediction. (+7.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Karviná could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	66.7%	16.7%

Dukla Prague - Karviná Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Dukla Prague will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Karviná will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - draw (1.35) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
59. Backovsky H. (G) 39. Kozma D. (C) 18. Hasek D. 22. Traore M. 3. Sehovic Z. 14. Tijani S. 19. Cermak M. 6. Penxa L. 15. Gilbert D. 5. Velasquez D. 11. Milla K.	1. Neuman V. (G) 24. Chytry J. 44. Skyba Y. 49. Camara S. 25. Fleisman J. (C) 4. Traore A. 99. Prebsl F. 29. Fiala J. 3. Lawali Y. 14. Ayaosi E. 26. Ezeh L.
Substitutes
30. Diallo B. 25. Hanousek Mar. 21. Hindi S. 47. Kreiker D. 1. Matrevics R. (G) 10. Mikus R. 17. Pekhart T. 37. Pourzitidis M. 23. Svozil J. 28. Unusic B. 20. Zitny M.	6. Bohac S. 31. Conde O. 11. Kacor P. 20. Kahuan Vinicius 8. Kristan J. 30. Lapes J. (G) 19. Milic N. 34. Mrozek O. (G) 10. Samko D. 21. Sloncik S.
Coaches
Sustr P.	Jarolim M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
24', Skyba Y. 🟨,
39', 0 - 1, Ezeh L. ⚽, Ayaosi E. (A),
42', 0 - 2, Traore A. ⚽, Chytry J. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Skyba Y. ↓, Kristan J. ↑,
46', Penxa L. ↓, Mikus R. ↑,
46', Tijani S. ↓, Zitny M. ↑,
46', Gilbert D. ↓, Kreiker D. ↑,
63', 1 - 2, Kreiker D. ⚽, Cermak M. (A),
65', Velasquez D. ↓, Pekhart T. ↑,
65', Sehovic Z. ↓, Pourzitidis M. ↑,
67', Fleisman J. ↓, Milic N. ↑,
67', Ayaosi E. ↓, Conde O. ↑,
67', Prebsl F. ↓, Kacor P. ↑,
72', Lawali Y. 🟨,
82', Ezeh L. ↓, Bohac S. ↑,
82', Neuman V. 🟨,
90+4', Pekhart T. 🟨,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 16 in the zone Chance Liga (Relegation Group: ) and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Chance Liga (7th~10th places: )).

Dukla Prague is Chance Liga (Relegation Group )

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Dukla Prague won 0.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Dukla Prague: Cisse N. (Injury) Kadak J. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Karviná: Sigut S. (Suspended) Storman R. (Injury)

There are questionable in Karviná: Labik A. (Health problems) Neuman V. (Health problems)

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Dukla Prague won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 12:20. (average 1.1:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Dukla Prague won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 5:6. (average 1.3:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Karviná - the odds 2.18 are the expected chance of winning is 42.23%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Dukla Prague
Czech 1 Liga
12.04.26	Mladá Boleslav - Dukla Prague	1:1 ✺
04.04.26	Dukla Prague - Pardubice	0:2 ✺
Club Friendly
27.03.26	Vlašim - Dukla Prague	0:1 ✺
Czech 1 Liga
14.03.26	Dukla Prague - Jablonec	2:0 ✺
07.03.26	Teplice - Dukla Prague	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.9 TLWWT
- MFK Karviná
Czech 1 Liga
12.04.26	Karviná - Slovan Liberec	3:1 ✺
05.04.26	Sparta Prague - Karviná	2:0 ✺
15.03.26	Sigma Olomouc - Karviná	2:2 ✺
08.03.26	Karviná - Pardubice	1:2 ✺
Czech Cup
05.03.26	Karviná - Viktoria Plzeň	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.3 WLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Czech 1 Liga
19.07.25	Karviná - Dukla Prague	2:0
12.03.25	Dukla Prague - Karviná	0:0
01.09.24	Karviná - Dukla Prague	0:0
Czech Division 2
13.05.23	Dukla Prague - Karviná	0:3
22.10.22	Karviná - Dukla Prague	5:0
Czech 1 Liga
14.05.19	Karviná - Dukla Prague	3:0
15.03.19	Dukla Prague - Karviná	2:1

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