Match Info

Kategoria e Parë - Round 19

Date: 24 January 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


World	FIFA+


	Kastrioti		Pogradeci

	1	X	2
	9	4.25	1.31
	9.55	4.33	1.3
	10	4.33	1.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	9.52 ↑ (4.85)	4.3 ↑ (3.55)	1.29 ↓ (1.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 10.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kastrioti
9.4%

Draw
20.8%

Pogradeci
69.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.7%

25.5%

55.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.1%

24.7%

57.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kastrioti has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Kastrioti's form might have worsened.

Pogradeci has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Pogradeci's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kastrioti than the current prediction. (+8.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Kastrioti, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pogradeci than the current prediction. (-12.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Pogradeci, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
28.6%	0%	71.4%

Kastrioti - Pogradeci Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Kastrioti will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Pogradeci will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Kastrioti (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Pogradeci (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
2nd Half (0 - 2)

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Abissnet Superiore (Promotion: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Abissnet Superiore (Promotion: )).

At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.

Kastrioti may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Pogradeci is the team to beat.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Kastrioti won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:4. (average 0.7:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Kastrioti won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0. (average 1:0).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Pogradeci	4	2	2	0	5:1	4	8
7	Kastrioti	4	1	2	1	5:5	0	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kastrioti
Albanian First Division
17.01.26	Iliria - Kastrioti	0:1 ✺
20.12.25	Kastrioti - Lushnja	2:1 ✺
13.12.25	Burreli - Kastrioti	0:0 ✺
07.12.25	Kastrioti - Apolonia Fier	1:0 ✺
03.12.25	Korabi Peshkopi - Kastrioti	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14 WWTWL
- KS Pogradeci
Albanian First Division
17.01.26	Pogradeci - Besa Kavajë	0:0 ✺
Albanian Cup
10.01.26	Vllaznia Shkodër - Pogradeci	1:0 ✺
Albanian First Division
20.12.25	Luftëtari Gjirokastër - Pogradeci	2:3 ✺
13.12.25	Pogradeci - Kukësi	2:0 ✺
07.12.25	Skënderbeu Korçë - Pogradeci	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.7 TLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Albanian First Division
25.10.25	Pogradeci - Kastrioti	4:0
23.02.25	Kastrioti - Pogradeci	0:0
09.11.24	Kastrioti - Pogradeci	2:0

Kastrioti - Pogradeci: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide