Match Info

Conference League - Qualification - Semi-finals

Date: 7 August 2025, Thursday

Location: Darius and Girėnas Stadium (Kaunas)

Referee: Muller J. (Lux)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bulgaria	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra


	Kauno Žalgiris		Arda Kardzhali

	1	X	2
	1.83	3.2	4.33	Watch
	2	3.2	3.4
	1.92	3.05	4.25	Watch
	1.88	3.1	4.83
	3.70	3.05	2.12	Watch
	1.88	3.42	4.6	Watch
	2.49	3.16	2.99
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.24 ↓ (2.4)	3.17 ↑ (3)	3.79 ↑ (2.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kauno Žalgiris
43.5%

Draw
30.8%

Arda Kardzhali
25.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.8%

30.3%

31.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39%

29.4%

30.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kauno Žalgiris has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Kauno Žalgiris's performance.

Arda Kardzhali has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Arda Kardzhali might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kauno Žalgiris than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arda Kardzhali than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Arda Kardzhali could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
67.3%	26.5%	6.1%

Kauno Žalgiris - Arda Kardzhali Predictions

Users Predictions: 49 users predict this event. Kauno Žalgiris will win (votes: 33 - 67.3%). Arda will win (votes: 3 - 6.1%). It will Tie (votes: 13 - 26.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Kauno Žalgiris: 54.2% – 80.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Kauno Žalgiris will win (20 of 26 users predict this - 76.92%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
55. Svedkauskas T. (G) 21. Bah-Traore H. 3. Tolordava A. 23. Hernandez A. 37. Iyobosa Edokpolor N. 6. Pavlovic D. 10. Sirgedas G. (C) 9. Chogadze T. 7. Benchaib A. 70. Ourega F. 77. Georgijevic D.	1. Gospodinov A. (C) 21. Velev V. 18. Huseynov C. 93. Eboa F. 35. Velkovski D. 80. Kotev L. 4. Idowu D. 10. Kovachev S. 20. Yusein S. 99. Karagaren B. 9. Nikolov G.
Substitutes
8. Armanavicius V. 28. Burdzilauskas E. 2. Burdzilauskas T. 11. Cernych F. 19. Jansonas R. 66. Jurjonas E. 5. Kerkez D. 20. Lekiatas R. 22. Mikelionis D. (G) 14. Naah D. 79. Paulauskas V. 30. Vosylius N.	26. Akandzha B. 2. Gustavo Cascardo 30. Kazakov I. 45. Mane I. 12. Nedelchev I. (G) 11. Shinyashiki A. 33. Tilev I. 27. Todev B. 39. Vutov A. 92. Yusuf M. (G)
Coaches
Cerniauskas E.	Tunchev A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2', Pavlovic D. 🟥,
23', Huseynov C. 🟨,
42', Chogadze T. 🟨,
45+1', Velev V. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Nikolov G. ↓, Vutov A. ↑,
53', 0 - 1, Vutov A. ⚽, Kovachev S. (A),
57', Tolordava A. 🟨,
59', Yusein S. 🟨,
72', Karagaren B. ↓, Mane I. ↑,
72', Yusein S. ↓, Shinyashiki A. ↑,
73', 🟨,
75', Mane I. 🟨,
79', Velkovski D. ↓, Gustavo Cascardo ↑,
81', Iyobosa Edokpolor N. 🟨,
81', Georgijevic D. ↓, Naah D. ↑,
81', Chogadze T. ↓, Paulauskas V. ↑,
86', Vutov A. ↓, Tilev I. ↑,
88', Ourega F. ↓, Armanavicius V. ↑,
88', Benchaib A. ↓, Jansonas R. ↑,
90+4', Iyobosa Edokpolor N. ↓, Jurjonas E. ↑,

Preview

1st leg.

Kauno Žalgiris is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Arda's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Arda may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Kauno Žalgiris might have a minor edge in this game.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FK Kauno Žalgiris
Lithuanian TOPLYGA
04.08.25	Žalgiris - Kauno Žalgiris	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
31.07.25	Valur - Kauno Žalgiris	1:2 ✺
24.07.25	Kauno Žalgiris - Valur	1:1 ✺
Lithuanian TOPLYGA
21.07.25	Kauno Žalgiris - Dainava Alytus	3:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
17.07.25	Pen-y-Bont - Kauno Žalgiris	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 WWTWT
- Arda Kardzhali
Bulgarian Parva Liga
04.08.25	Botev Plovdiv - Arda Kardzhali	0:5 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
31.07.25	HJK - Arda Kardzhali	2:3 penalties ✺
Bulgarian Parva Liga
27.07.25	Arda Kardzhali - Lokomotiv Sofia	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
24.07.25	Arda Kardzhali - HJK	0:0 ✺
Bulgarian Parva Liga
18.07.25	CSKA 1948 Sofia - Arda Kardzhali	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.7 WWTTL

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