Match Info

ASIA: AFC Champions League 2 - Round 5

Date: 28 November 2024, Thursday

Location: Rizal Memorial Stadium (Manila)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA AFC 2, beIN Sports MENA AFC 2, beIN Sports MENA AFC 2, TOD
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Moja TV, Sportklub 3
Bulgaria	Nova Sport
China	QQ Sports
Croatia	SportKlub 3
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL 2
Hong-kong	HOY TV
India	FanCode, FanCode, Vision+
Indonesia	RCTI+
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kyrgyzstan	KTRK Sports
Macao	Macau Cable TV 35 Sports
Montenegro	Sportklub 3
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO, SportKlub 3
Philippines	Cignal Play, Premier Football
Slovenia	SportKlub 1
Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1
Ukraine	Sport 1, Sport 3
Vietnam	FPT Play
World	Onefootball


	Kaya		Sanfrecce Hiroshima

	1	X	2
				Watch
	9.25	6.5	1.19
	11	7	1.18	Watch
	11.83	6.92	1.18
	11.29	6.39	1.19	Watch
	9.15	6.5	1.22	Watch
	11	7	1.18
Avarage Now (Initially)	10.59 ↑ (6.78)	6.72 ↑ (5.45)	1.19 ↓ (1.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kaya
8.7%

Draw
13.7%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
77.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

13.6%

16.9%

69.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

14.3%

16.1%

66%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kaya has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

Sanfrecce Hiroshima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Sanfrecce Hiroshima's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kaya than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Kaya, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sanfrecce Hiroshima than the current prediction. (-11.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Sanfrecce Hiroshima, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	0%	87.5%

Kaya - Sanfrecce Hiroshima Predictions

Users Predictions: Sanfrecce Hiroshima will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Deyto P. (G) 44. Menzi A. (C) 3. Saito A. 25. Esso E. 15. Casambre M. 14. Komaki S. 20. Park Y. 88. Yamazaki K. 10. Horikoshi D. 13. Melliza J. 30. del Rosario L.	21. Tanaka Y. (G) 32. Koshimichi S. 5. Matsumoto H. 16. Shichi T. 25. Chajima Y. 34. Hosoya K. 35. Nakajima Y. 31. Shota K. 10. Marcos Junior 36. Inoue A. 11. Mitsuta M.
Substitutes
8. Angeles M. 22. Arboleda F. 26. Bandiougou K. 24. Basindanan S. 1. Birrou W. (G) 12. Diano M. 17. Lopez R. 77. Rey G. 33. Romero J. 23. Rota S. 6. Swainston M.	6. Aoyama T. 13. Arai N. 4. Araki H. 24. Higashi S. 18. Kashiwa Y. 51. Kato M. 22. Kawanami G. (G) 14. Matsumoto T. 15. Nakano S. 1. Osako K. (G) 19. Sasaki S. 20. Sotiriou P.
Coaches
Hoshide Y.	Skibbe M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
18', 1 - 0, Komaki S. ⚽, Horikoshi D. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Chajima Y. ↓, Nakano S. ↑,
46', Shota K. ↓, Matsumoto T. ↑,
46', Shichi T. ↓, Arai N. ↑,
53', Arai N. ↓, Kashiwa Y. ↑,
63', del Rosario L. ↓, Lopez R. ↑,
63', Melliza J. ↓, Rota S. ↑,
68', 1 - 1, Inoue A. ⚽,
69', Casambre M. ↓, Bandiougou K. ↑,
77', Esso E. ↓, Arboleda F. ↑,
77', Menzi A. ↓, Angeles M. ↑,
82', Marcos Junior ↓, Sotiriou P. ↑,
83', Lopez R. 🟨,
90+4', Deyto P. 🟨,

Preview

Hiroshima is Qualified for AFC Champions League 2 (Play Offs 1/8~finals)

Kaya is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Hiroshima is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Hiroshima could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Hiroshima is certain favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Kaya won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0:3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kaya FC
Philippines PFL
23.11.24	Kaya - Mendiola	9:1 ✺
13.11.24	Kaya - Loyola	3:2 ✺
10.11.24	Stallion - Kaya	1:5 ✺
AFC Champions League 2
07.11.24	Eastern AA - Kaya	1:2 ✺
25.10.24	Kaya - Eastern AA	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18 WWWWL
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Japan J1 League
10.11.24	Urawa Red Diamonds - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	3:0 ✺
AFC Champions League 2
07.11.24	Sydney - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	0:1 ✺
Japan J1 League
03.11.24	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Kyoto Sanga	0:1 ✺
AFC Champions League 2
23.10.24	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Sydney	2:1 ✺
Japan J1 League
19.10.24	Shonan Bellmare - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

AFC Champions League 2
19.09.24	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Kaya	3:0

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