Match Info

YBC Levain Cup - Second stage - Quarter-finals

Date: 3 September 2025, Wednesday

Location: Lemon Gas Stadium (Hiratsuka)

Where to Watch on TV:


Japan	Fuji TV One, SKY PerfecTV!


	Shonan Bellmare		Sanfrecce Hiroshima

	1	X	2
	6	3.75	1.6	Watch
	3.9	3.4	1.75
	5.3	3.75	1.58	Watch
	6.1	4.05	1.6
	5.20	3.53	1.68	Watch
	4.8	3.5	1.6
	6.03	3.77	1.61	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.33 ↓ (5.34)	3.68 ↓ (3.88)	1.63 ↑ (1.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Shonan Bellmare
17.5%

Draw
25.4%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
57.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

17.7%

24.3%

58%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17%

23.3%

60.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Shonan Bellmare has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Sanfrecce Hiroshima has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Shonan Bellmare than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sanfrecce Hiroshima than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
18.7%	18.7%	62.5%

Shonan Bellmare - Sanfrecce Hiroshima Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Shonan Bellmare will win (votes: 3 - 18.8%). Hiroshima will win (votes: 10 - 62.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 18.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Hiroshima: 38.8% – 86.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Shonan Bellmare (votes: 2 - 40%). Hiroshima (votes: 2 - 40%). Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Hiroshima (1.94) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Shonan Bellmare (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Hiroshima (votes: 3 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
81. Yoshida S. (G) 22. Oiwa K. 66. Matsumoto H. 32. Matsumura S. 6. Ze Ricardo 50. Fujii T. 18. Ikeda M. 25. Okuno H. 28. Ota S. 10. Suzuki A. 27. Luiz Phellype	26. Jeong Min-Ki (G) 33. Shiotani T. 3. Yamasaki T. 19. Sasaki S. 13. Arai N. 14. Tanaka S. 6. Kawabe H. 18. Suga D. 35. Nakajima Y. 51. Kato M. 98. Germain V.
Substitutes
77. Ishii H. 23. Matsumoto K. 72. Nitta R. 9. Oda Y. 15. Okuno K. 31. Sanada K. (G) 4. Tachi K. 33. Takahashi N. 29. Watanabe K.	9. Germain R. 24. Higashi S. 17. Kinoshita K. 45. Kobayashi S. 32. Koshimichi S. 41. Maeda N. 10. Marcos Junior 15. Nakano S. 21. Tanaka Y. (G)
Coaches
Yamaguchi S.	Skibbe M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
15', 0 - 1, Kato M. ⚽, Nakajima Y. (A),
40', Shiotani T. 🟨,
41', 1 - 1, Suzuki A. ⚽, Ota S. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Matsumura S. ↓, Tachi K. ↑,
49', 2 - 1, Okuno H. ⚽,
60', Luiz Phellype ↓, Oda Y. ↑,
61', Suga D. ↓, Higashi S. ↑,
61', Arai N. ↓, Nakano S. ↑,
61', Kawabe H. ↓, Germain R. ↑,
69', Ze Ricardo 🟨,
70', Higashi S. 🟨,
76', Germain R. ↓, Kinoshita K. ↑,
78', Fujii T. ↓, Nitta R. ↑,
83', Kato M. ↓, Marcos Junior ↑,
86', 2 - 2, Kinoshita K. ⚽, Nakajima Y. (A),
89', Suzuki A. ↓, Watanabe K. ↑,
90', Ze Ricardo ↓, Okuno K. ↑,
90+2', 3 - 2, Nitta R. ⚽, Oda Y. (A),
90+5', Yoshida S. 🟨,

Preview

1st leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Shonan Bellmare won 2.

Shonan Bellmare is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Hiroshima is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Shonan Bellmare may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Hiroshima is seen as the favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Shonan Bellmare won 4 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 14:26. (average 0.7:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Shonan Bellmare won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 6:8. (average 0.6:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Shonan Bellmare
Japan J1 League
31.08.25	Shonan Bellmare - Gamba Osaka	4:5 ✺
23.08.25	Fagiano Okayama - Shonan Bellmare	1:0 ✺
16.08.25	Shonan Bellmare - Tokyo	2:2 ✺
10.08.25	Kashiwa Reysol - Shonan Bellmare	2:0 ✺
23.07.25	Urawa Red Diamonds - Shonan Bellmare	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LLTLL
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Japan J1 League
31.08.25	Cerezo Osaka - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	1:1 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
27.08.25	Nagoya Grampus - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	2:4 ✺
Japan J1 League
23.08.25	Tokyo Verdy - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	0:3 ✺
20.08.25	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Vissel Kobe	0:1 ✺
16.08.25	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Gamba Osaka	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 TWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
07.05.25	Shonan Bellmare - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	0:1
19.10.24	Shonan Bellmare - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	2:1
07.04.24	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Shonan Bellmare	2:0
05.08.23	Shonan Bellmare - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	1:0
27.05.23	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Shonan Bellmare	1:0
10.07.22	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Shonan Bellmare	1:1
02.04.22	Shonan Bellmare - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	0:1

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