Match Info

1. Lig - Round 30

Date: 11 March 2026, Wednesday

Location: Aktepe Stadium (Ankara)

Referee: Kolak B. (Tur)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	TOD
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, Tabii, TRT Spor


	Keçiörengücü		Sakaryaspor

	1	X	2
	1.67	3.6	4.1	Watch
	1.74	3.87	3.87
	1.78	4.07	4.09
	1.67	4.45	4.09	Watch
	1.73	3.8	4
	1.75	3.77	4.3	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↑ (1.49)	3.93 ↓ (4.3)	4.08 ↓ (5.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Keçiörengücü
53.7%

Draw
23.6%

Sakaryaspor
22.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.1%

21.5%

16.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48%

16.6%

21.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Keçiörengücü has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Keçiörengücü's form might have worsened.

Sakaryaspor has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Sakaryaspor's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Keçiörengücü than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Keçiörengücü that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sakaryaspor than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	20%	0%

Keçiörengücü - Sakaryaspor Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Keçiörengücü (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Keçiörengücü will win (8 of 10 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 55.21% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
18. Satilmis E. (G) 10. Bulut H. 5. Caliskan O. 4. Celik A. 11. Dere A. 8. Rroca E. 14. Akdag I. (C) 7. Roshi O. 78. Fernandes J. 21. Ezeh F. 55. Diouf M.	29. Szumski J. (G) 21. Yavuz S. 86. Bekaroglu B. (C) 4. Cakir B. 7. Demir M. 22. Okumus A. 16. Sen K. 85. Fofana M. 99. Yildirim P. 91. Bostan M. 14. Demir E.
Substitutes
9. Akman A. 22. Ayan H. 98. Cakmak M. 70. Diaby O. 79. Duman A. 73. Lus S. 23. Mexer 88. Ozer A. (G) 32. Poyraz E. 28. Yilmaz E.	8. Cihan M. 1. Dadakdeniz A. (G) 24. Dursun S. 43. Kocaman A. 27. Owusu 10. Pena S. 2. Ruan Teixeira 19. Soro I. 3. Terzi E. 9. Zwolinski L.
Coaches
Kosukavak Y.	Dalci M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
8', Demir M. ↓, Pena S. ↑,
13', Cakir B. 🟨,
15', 0 - 1, Yildirim P. ⚽, Yavuz S. (A),
36', 1 - 1, Diouf M. ⚽, Ezeh F. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
62', Demir E. ↓, Owusu ↑,
63', Bostan M. ↓, Ruan Teixeira ↑,
63', Yildirim P. ↓, Zwolinski L. ↑,
66', Fofana M. 🟨,
69', Fernandes J. ↓, Ayan H. ↑,
81', Sen K. ↓, Cihan M. ↑,
82', Rroca E. ↓, Akman A. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 9 and 18 in the zone Relegation).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Keçiörengücü won 0.

Keçiörengücü has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Sakaryaspor is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Sakaryaspor may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Keçiörengücü is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Keçiörengücü: Erdogan M. (Injury) Karaogul I. (Yellow Cards) Keskin B. (Suspended) Wellington Nascimento (Red Card)

There will not play in Sakaryaspor: Turken A. (Inactive)

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Keçiörengücü won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 10:16. (average 1.1:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Keçiörengücü won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:8. (average 1.5:2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Keciorengucu	8	3	4	1	17:10	7	13

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Keçiörengücü
Turkish First League
07.03.26	Sivasspor - Keçiörengücü	0:1 ✺
Turkish Cup
04.03.26	Erzurumspor - Keçiörengücü	4:2 ✺
Turkish First League
28.02.26	Keçiörengücü - Amed SK	2:2 ✺
23.02.26	Pendikspor - Keçiörengücü	0:1 ✺
18.02.26	Keçiörengücü - Erzurumspor	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.6 WLTWL
- Sakaryaspor
Turkish First League
01.03.26	Sakaryaspor - Sarıyer	0:0 ✺
23.02.26	Sivasspor - Sakaryaspor	4:1 ✺
19.02.26	Sakaryaspor - Pendikspor	0:2 ✺
15.02.26	Amed SK - Sakaryaspor	1:1 ✺
09.02.26	Sakaryaspor - Erzurumspor	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 TLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Turkish First League
25.10.25	Sakaryaspor - Keçiörengücü	1:0
19.01.25	Keçiörengücü - Sakaryaspor	2:3
09.08.24	Sakaryaspor - Keçiörengücü	1:1
21.04.24	Sakaryaspor - Keçiörengücü	2:1
02.12.23	Keçiörengücü - Sakaryaspor	1:3
05.02.23	Sakaryaspor - Keçiörengücü	2:0
04.09.22	Keçiörengücü - Sakaryaspor	2:1

Upcoming Matches