Match Info

Premiership - Relegation Group - Round 37

Date: 12 May 2026, Tuesday

Location: Rugby Park (Kilmarnock)

Referee: Scott C. (Sco)


	Kilmarnock		Dundee

	1	X	2
	1.68	3.9	4.33	Watch
	1.72	3.7	4.45	Watch
	1.77	3.98	4.71
	1.78	3.8	4.41	Watch
	1.7	3.6	4.33
	1.72	3.86	4.41	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.73 ↓ (2.16)	3.81 ↑ (3.45)	4.44 ↑ (3.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kilmarnock
54.3%

Draw
24.6%

Dundee
21.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.1%

27%

29.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.3%

26.3%

29.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kilmarnock has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Kilmarnock's performance.

Dundee has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Dundee might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kilmarnock than the current prediction. (-10%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Kilmarnock that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dundee than the current prediction. (+8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Dundee could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70%	13.3%	16.7%

Kilmarnock - Dundee Predictions

Users Predictions: 30 users predict this event. Kilmarnock will win (votes: 21 - 70%). Dundee will win (votes: 5 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 13.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Kilmarnock: 53.6% – 86.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -0.75 - Kilmarnock (1.90) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Kilmarnock will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Kilmarnock (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Stryjek M. (G) 21. Schjonning-Larsen M. 14. Stanger G. 6. Deas R. (C) 3. Thompson D. 18. Lowery T. 36. Tshibola A. 11. Kiltie G. 19. Anderson B. 52. Curtis F. 44. Hugill J.	13. O'Hara K. (G) 4. Astley R. (C) 3. Robertson C. 5. Koumetio B. 16. Halliday B. 28. Jones C. 24. Cotterill J. 10. Robertson F. 12. Samuels I. 11. Hay A. 25. Wright S.
Substitutes
20. Clescenco N. 16. Magennis K. 5. Mayo L. 7. McKenzie R. 31. Polworth L. 23. Watkins M. 12. Watson D. 4. Williams Z. 30. Wright K. (G)	27. Bevan J. 8. Digby P. 14. Montsma L. 52. Oosenbrugh C. 18. Reilly C. 30. Sharp H. (G) 38. Valenzuela F. 19. Westley J. 17. Yogane T.
Coaches
McCann N.	Pressley S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
18', Robertson F. 🟨,
35', Anderson B. 🟨,
38', Deas R. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
58', Anderson B. ↓, Watkins M. ↑,
62', 1 - 0, Lowery T. ⚽, Schjonning-Larsen M. (A),
67', Robertson C. ↓, Bevan J. ↑,
68', Wright S. ↓, Reilly C. ↑,
68', Hay A. ↓, Westley J. ↑,
77', 1 - 1, Lowery T. (Own goal),
78', Halliday B. ↓, Oosenbrugh C. ↑,
83', Bevan J. 🟨,
84', O'Hara K. 🟨,
85', 2 - 1, Hugill J. (Penalty Awarded),
86', Cotterill J. ↓, Yogane T. ↑,
87', Watkins M. ↓, Watson D. ↑,
87', Schjonning-Larsen M. ↓, Mayo L. ↑,
89', Mayo L. 🟨,
90+2', Kiltie G. ↓, McKenzie R. ↑,
90+4', 3 - 1, Hugill J. ⚽,
90+4', Hugill J. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kilmarnock won 1.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

In this match, Kilmarnock is the team to beat.

There will not play in Kilmarnock: Daniels D. (Knee Injury) John-Jules T. (Muscle Injury) Kennedy M. (Hip Injury)

There will not play in Dundee: McCracken J. (Injury) Robertson C. (Thigh Injury)

There are questionable in Kilmarnock: Roos K. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Kilmarnock won 6 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 33:31. (average 1.7:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Kilmarnock won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 17:14. (average 1.7:1.4).

Outrights of Scottish Premier League for now

Dundee FC: 0.53% Kilmarnock: 0.25%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Dundee FC	8	4	1	3	11:8	3	13
12	Kilmarnock	8	1	2	5	7:18	-11	5

Last Results with these Odds

Dundee - the odds 3.12 are the expected chance of winning is 29.86%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kilmarnock FC
Scottish Premier League
09.05.26	St. Mirren - Kilmarnock	0:3 ✺
02.05.26	Kilmarnock - Dundee United	3:0 ✺
25.04.26	Aberdeen - Kilmarnock	1:0 ✺
11.04.26	Kilmarnock - Dundee	1:2 ✺
04.04.26	Hibernian - Kilmarnock	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 WWLLL
- Dundee FC
Scottish Premier League
09.05.26	Dundee - Livingston	3:0 ✺
02.05.26	Dundee - St. Mirren	1:0 ✺
26.04.26	Dundee United - Dundee	3:0 ✺
11.04.26	Kilmarnock - Dundee	1:2 ✺
05.04.26	Dundee - Celtic	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Scottish Premier League
11.04.26	Kilmarnock - Dundee	1:2
Scottish Cup
17.01.26	Kilmarnock - Dundee	1:2
Scottish Premier League
30.12.25	Dundee - Kilmarnock	2:1
23.08.25	Kilmarnock - Dundee	0:0
10.05.25	Kilmarnock - Dundee	3:2
30.11.24	Kilmarnock - Dundee	1:1
03.11.24	Dundee - Kilmarnock	3:2

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