Match Info

Premier League - Championship Group - Round 5

Date: 17 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Mong Kok Stadium (Hongkong)

Where to Watch on TV:


Hong-kong	on.cc


	Kitchee		Eastern AA

	1	X	2
	1.55	4	4.5
	1.4	4.55	5.7
	1.38	4.5	6.49
	1.49	4.17	5.71	Watch
	1.4	4	6
	1.38	4.5	6.53	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.43 ↓ (1.6)	4.29 ↑ (3.92)	5.82 ↑ (4.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kitchee
63.3%

Draw
21.2%

Eastern AA
15.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.5%

23.5%

19%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60%

24.5%

18.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kitchee has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Kitchee's performance.

Eastern AA has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kitchee than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Eastern AA than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

Kitchee - Eastern AA Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Wang Z. (C) 42. Cheung Y. 6. Haddow J. 5. Illarramendi A. 34. Kam Chi-Kin. J. 11. Kanda Y. 27. Lam Lok-Kan J. 41. Lam P. 40. Li Siu-Hin 7. Mingazov R. 9. Revilla A.	24. Gianni Cassaro (G) 17. Carvalho G. 37. Chang Kwong-Yin 33. Gao M. H. 27. Gondra M. K. 15. Lau Kwan Ching 16. Leung C. (C) 5. Lorenz M. 9. Okubo Y. 65. Wong Fred Yang 42. Yeung T.
Substitutes
21. Buddle S. 37. Chan Shing-Chun 8. Cheng Chin-Lung 30. Juninho 2. Law Tsz-Chun 20. Martinez Ortiz L. 4. Matheus Dantas 15. Merquelanz M. 17. Pong C. (G) 31. Slattery M. 16. Tan Chun-Lok 12. Wong Ho-Chun Anson	18. Cheung Che Hope 66. Gao M. 44. Gurung P. 7. Kawano T. 25. Ko C. W. (G) 26. Liu F. (G) 28. Siu C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 3)
7', 1 - 0, Mingazov R. ⚽,
24', 1 - 1, Okubo Y. ⚽,
25', 2 - 1, Mingazov R. ⚽,
36', 2 - 2, Gondra M. K. ⚽,
36', Gao M. H. ↓, Kawano T. ↑,
40', 2 - 3, Okubo Y. ⚽,
43', Revilla A. 🟨,
45+5', Lau Kwan Ching 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
62', Haddow J. ↓, Matheus Dantas ↑,
62', Li Siu-Hin ↓, Juninho ↑,
62', Cheung Y. ↓, Merquelanz M. ↑,
62', Kanda Y. ↓, Martinez Ortiz L. ↑,
64', Yeung T. ↓, Cheung Che Hope ↑,
71', Lam P. ↓, Buddle S. ↑,
73', 3 - 3, Merquelanz M. ⚽,
78', Okubo Y. 🟨,
78', Juninho 🟨,
80', 4 - 3, Revilla A. ⚽,
86', Mingazov R. 🟨,
90', Cheung Che Hope 🟨,
90+2', 🟨,
90+4', Wang Z. ↓, Pong C. ↑,
90+5', 4 - 4, Okubo Y. ⚽,

Preview

Kitchee is Confirmed as championsnQualified for AFC Champions League 2

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kitchee won 3.

Recent performances by Kitchee have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Eastern AA is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Kitchee may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Eastern AA has had a series of home games.

In this match, Kitchee is the team to beat.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Kitchee won 11 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 31:13. (average 1.6:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Kitchee won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 20:5. (average 2:0.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Kitchee	4	3	1	0	10:4	6	10
7	Eastern AA	4	1	0	3	6:8	-2	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kitchee FC
Hong Kong Premier League
02.05.26	Wofoo Tai Po - Kitchee	3:0 ✺
25.04.26	North District - Kitchee	2:2 ✺
18.04.26	Kitchee - Lee Man	1:4 ✺
12.04.26	Kitchee - Hong Kong Rangers	2:0 ✺
Hong Kong League Cup
07.04.26	Kitchee - Lee Man	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 LTLWW
- Eastern AA
Hong Kong Premier League
09.05.26	Eastern AA - Wofoo Tai Po	2:4 ✺
01.05.26	Eastern AA - North District	3:1 ✺
26.04.26	Lee Man - Eastern AA	0:1 ✺
11.04.26	Eastern AA - Hong Kong FC	5:0 ✺
04.04.26	Eastern AA - Hong Kong Rangers	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.1 LWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Hong Kong Premier League
21.03.26	Kitchee - Eastern AA	2:1
29.08.25	Eastern AA - Kitchee	0:1
25.05.25	Eastern AA - Kitchee	1:1
Hong Kong Sapling Cup
22.03.25	Eastern AA - Kitchee	1:1
Hong Kong Premier League
02.02.25	Kitchee - Eastern AA	3:0
18.01.25	Eastern AA - Kitchee	1:1
Hong Kong FA Cup
12.05.24	Kitchee - Eastern AA	1:2

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