Match Info

1. Lig - Round 38

Date: 11 May 2025, Sunday

Location: Yıldız Entegre Kocaeli Stadium (Izmit)

Referee: Turtay O. (Tur)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	TOD
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, Tabii, TRT Spor


	Kocaelispor		Keçiörengücü

	1	X	2
	1.22	5.75	8.5	Watch
	1.52	4	4.75
	1.22	6	9.52
	1.25	6.04	8.98
	1.29	5.64	9.11	Watch
	1.55	4	4.8
	1.25	6.31	9.32	Watch
	1.22	6	9.52
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.32 ↓ (1.55)	5.47 ↑ (4.26)	8.06 ↑ (4.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kocaelispor
71.2%

Draw
17.1%

Keçiörengücü
11.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.6%

21.6%

18.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.2%

21%

18.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kocaelispor has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Kocaelispor's performance.

Keçiörengücü has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Keçiörengücü might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kocaelispor than the current prediction. (-10%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Kocaelispor that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Keçiörengücü than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Keçiörengücü could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Kocaelispor - Keçiörengücü Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Kocaelispor will win (votes: 3 - 75%). Keçiörengücü will win (votes: 1 - 25%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Kocaelispor (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
35. Degirmenci G. (G) 22. Oguz A. 5. Appindangoye A. 41. Oztonga O. 3. Cinan M. 4. Vukovic J. 23. Yalcin S. 8. Celik C. 18. Gedik F. 20. Mendes R. 17. Caglayan O.	1. Erdogan M. (G) 19. Yildiz U. 16. Ayaydin O. 73. Lus S. 11. Dere A. 95. Traore A. 88. Silva M. 20. Ayaroglu H. 5. Caliskan O. 52. Duman A. 10. Dembele P. M.
Substitutes
21. Bilim E. 44. Cil M. 19. Gedik E. 91. Gocen A. (G) 10. Marcao 72. Rivas R. 9. Sagat A. 15. Serbest T. 45. Tunali M. 32. Yilmaz M.	54. Atassalar M. 61. Celik A. 53. Kilic H. 27. Kucuksolak E. 18. Satilmis E. (G) 15. Sengul A. 83. Yikilmaz M.
Coaches
Tasdemir I.	Agcay S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (4 - 1)
22', Yildiz U. 🟨,
28', 1 - 0, Mendes R. ⚽, Celik C. (A),
30', 2 - 0, Caglayan O. ⚽, Mendes R. (A),
36', 3 - 0, Caglayan O. (Pen),
43', 3 - 1, Ayaydin O. ⚽, Silva M. (A),
45+2', 4 - 1, Caglayan O. ⚽, Mendes R. (A),
45+3', Caglayan O. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Dembele P. M. ↓, Celik A. ↑,
57', Celik C. ↓, Serbest T. ↑,
57', Gedik F. ↓, Gedik E. ↑,
68', Traore A. ↓, Kilic H. ↑,
80', Appindangoye A. ↓, Tunali M. ↑,
81', Cinan M. ↓, Bilim E. ↑,
84', Ayaydin O. ↓, Atassalar M. ↑,
86', Oguz A. ↓, Cil M. ↑,
87', Dere A. ↓, Yikilmaz M. ↑,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Super Lig and 13).

Kocaelispor is Confirmed as championsnQualified for Super Lig

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kocaelispor won 4.

Recent form of Kocaelispor has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Keçiörengücü's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recently, Kocaelispor has had a series of away games.

In this match, Kocaelispor is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Keçiörengücü: Donertas K. (Suspended)

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Kocaelispor won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 10:3. (average 1.7:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Kocaelispor won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:0. (average 2:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kocaelispor
Turkish First League
04.05.25	Igdirspor - Kocaelispor	4:0 ✺
27.04.25	Kocaelispor - Boluspor	3:4 ✺
20.04.25	Erokspor - Kocaelispor	3:1 ✺
10.04.25	Adanaspor - Kocaelispor	1:4 ✺
06.04.25	Bandırmaspor - Kocaelispor	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LLLWT
- Keçiörengücü
Turkish First League
04.05.25	Keçiörengücü - Ankaragücü	2:3 ✺
27.04.25	Fatih Karagümrükspor - Keçiörengücü	1:0 ✺
20.04.25	Keçiörengücü - Umraniyespor	0:1 ✺
12.04.25	İstanbulspor - Keçiörengücü	0:2 ✺
08.04.25	Keçiörengücü - Şanlıurfaspor	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Turkish First League
12.01.25	Keçiörengücü - Kocaelispor	0:1
25.02.24	Keçiörengücü - Kocaelispor	2:2
01.10.23	Kocaelispor - Keçiörengücü	3:0
04.03.22	Kocaelispor - Keçiörengücü	1:0
17.10.21	Keçiörengücü - Kocaelispor	0:1
Turkish Cup
25.11.20	Keçiörengücü - Kocaelispor	1:2 ET

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