Match Info

JAPAN: J1 League - Round 7

Date: 7 April 2024, Sunday

Location: Sanga Stadium by Kyocera (Kameoka)

Referee: Sendachi K. (Jpn)


	Kyoto Sanga		Júbilo Iwata

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.4	3.2	Watch
	2.15	3.3	3.2
	2.18	3.36	3.07	Watch
	2.29	3.35	3.45
	2.25	3.35	3.45
	2.15	3.3	3
	2.19	3.49	3.3	Watch
	2.19	3.35	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.21 ↑ (1.8)	3.36 ↓ (3.4)	3.23 ↓ (4.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kyoto Sanga
42.8%

Draw
28.1%

Júbilo Iwata
29.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.3%

27.8%

19.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.6%

27.1%

19.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kyoto Sanga has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Kyoto Sanga's form might have worsened.

Júbilo Iwata has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Júbilo Iwata's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kyoto Sanga than the current prediction. (+10.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Kyoto Sanga, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Júbilo Iwata than the current prediction. (-9.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Júbilo Iwata, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	11.1%	66.7%

Kyoto Sanga - Júbilo Iwata Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Kyoto will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Iwata will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Iwata: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
94. Gu Sung-Yun (G) 2. Fukuda S. 5. Appiah Tawiah H. 3. Asada S. 44. Sato K. 16. Takeda S. 7. Kawasaki S. 18. Matsuda T. 23. Toyokawa Y. 14. Hara T. 9. Marco Tulio	1. Kawashima E. (G) 26. Nishikubo S. 15. Suzuki K. 36. Ricardo Graca 50. Uemura H. 14. Matsumoto M. 77. Fujiwara K. 7. Uehara R. 37. Hirakawa R. 99. Matheus Peixoto 11. Germain R.
Substitutes
17. Anzai Y. 10. Fukuoka S. 21. Hahn W. (G) 4. Matsuda K. 24. Miyamoto Y. 28. Suzuki T. 11. Yamasaki R.	19. Bruno Jose 13. Fujikawa K. 31. Furukawa Y. 16. Leo Gomes 3. Morioka R. 18. Takahata K. 20. Tsuboi Y. (G)
Coaches
Cho K.	Yokouchi A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
26', Appiah Tawiah H. 🟨,
43', Asada S. 🟨,
44', Matheus Peixoto (Pen),
2nd Half (0 - 3)
52', 0 - 1, Nishikubo S. ⚽, Fujiwara K. (A),
64', Marco Tulio ↓, Yamasaki R. ↑,
64', Matsuda T. ↓, Miyamoto Y. ↑,
64', Takeda S. ↓, Suzuki T. ↑,
65', 0 - 2, Matheus Peixoto ⚽, Nishikubo S. (A),
72', 0 - 3, Matheus Peixoto ⚽,
75', Toyokawa Y. ↓, Anzai Y. ↑,
75', Sato K. ↓, Fukuoka S. ↑,
75', Ricardo Graca ↓, Morioka R. ↑,
86', Hirakawa R. ↓, Furukawa Y. ↑,
86', Matsumoto M. ↓, Fujikawa K. ↑,
87', Fujiwara K. ↓, Leo Gomes ↑,
90+4', Suzuki K. ↓, Takahata K. ↑,
90+8', Matheus Peixoto ↓, Bruno Jose ↑,

Preview

This time only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 16 and 17).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Kyoto won 1.

Two teams are playing changeable.

Kyoto will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 10 head-to-head matches Kyoto won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 15-20.

Including matches at home between the teams Kyoto won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 8-13.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kyoto Sanga
Japan J1 League
03.04.24	Gamba Osaka - Kyoto Sanga	0:0 ✺
29.03.24	Tokyo Verdy - Kyoto Sanga	2:2 ✺
17.03.24	Kyoto Sanga - Yokohama F. Marinos	2:3 ✺
09.03.24	Kawasaki Frontale - Kyoto Sanga	0:1 ✺
02.03.24	Kyoto Sanga - Shonan Bellmare	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 TTLWL
- Júbilo Iwata
Japan J1 League
03.04.24	Júbilo Iwata - Albirex Niigata	2:0 ✺
30.03.24	Kashima Antlers - Júbilo Iwata	1:0 ✺
16.03.24	Gamba Osaka - Júbilo Iwata	2:1 ✺
09.03.24	Júbilo Iwata - Kashiwa Reysol	0:1 ✺
01.03.24	Kawasaki Frontale - Júbilo Iwata	4:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.9 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
05.11.22	Júbilo Iwata - Kyoto Sanga	0:0
05.03.22	Kyoto Sanga - Júbilo Iwata	1:4
Japan J2 League
07.11.21	Júbilo Iwata - Kyoto Sanga	1:0
21.03.21	Kyoto Sanga - Júbilo Iwata	3:4
04.10.20	Júbilo Iwata - Kyoto Sanga	1:2
28.06.20	Kyoto Sanga - Júbilo Iwata	2:0
08.08.15	Júbilo Iwata - Kyoto Sanga	3:3

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