Match Info

J1 League - Round 12

Date: 24 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Panasonic Stadium Suita (Suita) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
China	15:00	K-Ball
Japan	16:00	DAZN Japan


	Gamba Osaka		Kyoto Sanga

	1	X	2
	1.76	3.7	4.2	Watch
	1.80	3.70	4.00
	1.75	3.6	4.15	Watch
	1.82	3.87	4.44
	1.81	3.9	4.09	Watch
	1.77	3.95	4.35
	1.78	3.74	4.47	Watch
	1.78	3.8	4.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.78 ↓ (2.25)	3.78 ↑ (3.45)	4.25 ↑ (2.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gamba Osaka
52.9%

Draw
24.9%

Kyoto Sanga
22.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

41%

26.7%

32.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.8%

25.9%

31.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gamba Osaka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Gamba Osaka's performance.

Kyoto Sanga has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Kyoto Sanga might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gamba Osaka than the current prediction. (-10.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Gamba Osaka that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kyoto Sanga than the current prediction. (+9.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Kyoto Sanga could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
77.8%	22.2%	0%

Gamba Osaka - Kyoto Sanga Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Gamba Osaka will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Gamba Osaka: 50.6% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Gamba Osaka (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Ichimori J. (G) 15. Kishimoto T. 4. Nakatani S. (C) 2. Fukuoka S. 47. Nakano S. 16. Suzuki T. 27. Mito R. 17. Yamashita R. 11. Jebali I. 39. Sumi K. 7. Usami T.	90. Halls (G) 43. Weverton 50. Suzuki Y. 15. Nagata K. 40. Ishida Y. 10. Fukuoka S. (C) 24. Morooka H. 44. Sato K. 48. Nakano R. 77. Arai H. 17. Souza Alex
Substitutes
13. Abe S. 20. Adams E. 28. Fujiwara S. 21. Hatsuse R. 1. Higashiguchi M. (G) 8. Meshino R. 67. Sasaki S. 41. Toshida Y. 97. Welton	99. Honda F. 23. Kato T. 11. Marco Tulio 1. Ota G. (G) 9. Rafael Elias 62. Shichi T. 5. Tawiah H. 60. Yamanaka R. 25. Yoon S.
Coaches
Myojin T.	Popovic R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
31', 1 - 0, Usami T. ⚽,
33', Sato K. 🟨,
39', 1 - 1, Arai H. ⚽, Fukuoka S. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Weverton ↓, Kato T. ↑,
53', Ichimori J. 🟥,
57', Sumi K. ↓, Higashiguchi M. ↑,
65', 2 - 1, Jebali I. ⚽,
66', Suzuki T. ↓, Abe S. ↑,
66', Usami T. ↓, Sasaki S. ↑,
69', Morooka H. ↓, Rafael Elias ↑,
69', Souza Alex ↓, Honda F. ↑,
75', Ishida Y. ↓, Marco Tulio ↑,
80', Sato K. ↓, Yamanaka R. ↑,
90', Mito R. ↓, Hatsuse R. ↑,
90+1', Yamashita R. ↓, Meshino R. ↑,
90+2', 2 - 2, Kato T. ⚽,
90+7', Jebali I. 🟨,

Preview

A dramatic battle between two struggling sides fighting for survival points (ranked 18th in the Relegation - J2 League and 16th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gamba Osaka won 2.

Gamba Osaka has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Kyoto has struggled for form in recent encounters (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Gamba Osaka could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Recently, Gamba Osaka has faced a series of away games on the road.

Gamba Osaka is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

Confirmed absences for Gamba Osaka: Araki R. (Elbow Injury) Handa R. (Knee Injury) Miura G. (Knee Injury) Okunuki K. (Foot Injury) Uenaka A. (Knee Injury) Yokoi Y. (Knee Injury).

Confirmed absences for Kyoto: Saito M. (Knee Injury) Sakai K. (Injury).

In the last 13 head-to-head meetings, Gamba Osaka has recorded 5 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 17:14 (averaging 1.3:1.1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Gamba Osaka against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, with 6:3 goals (averaging 1:0.5 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
16	Kyoto	10	2	2	6	11:19	-8	8
18	Gamba Osaka	10	1	4	5	10:18	-8	7

Outrights of Japan J1 League for now

Kyoto: 0.65% Gamba Osaka: 0.6%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gamba Osaka
Japan J1 League
21.10.26	Avispa Fukuoka - Gamba Osaka	1:2 ✺
17.10.26	Shimizu S-Pulse - Gamba Osaka	2:2 ✺
AFC Champions League
13.10.26	Newcastle Jets - Gamba Osaka	1:3 ✺
Japan J1 League
09.10.26	Kashima Antlers - Gamba Osaka	2:0 ✺
Japan J League Cup
03.10.26	Kashiwa Reysol - Gamba Osaka	5:4 AET ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 WTWLL
- Kyoto Sanga
Japan J1 League
21.10.26	Kyoto Sanga - Kashima Antlers	2:2 ✺
17.10.26	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Kyoto Sanga	3:0 ✺
AFC Champions League
13.10.26	Kyoto Sanga - Ratchaburi	1:0 ✺
Japan J1 League
10.10.26	Kyoto Sanga - Machida Zelvia	0:1 ✺
Japan J League Cup
03.10.26	Machida Zelvia - Kyoto Sanga	1:0 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 TLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
29.04.26	Kyoto Sanga - Gamba Osaka	2:1 penalties
04.04.26	Gamba Osaka - Kyoto Sanga	2:0
28.06.25	Kyoto Sanga - Gamba Osaka	3:1
29.04.25	Gamba Osaka - Kyoto Sanga	2:1
22.09.24	Kyoto Sanga - Gamba Osaka	2:2
03.04.24	Gamba Osaka - Kyoto Sanga	0:0
08.07.23	Gamba Osaka - Kyoto Sanga	1:0

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