Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 16 - Round 19

Date: 25 January 2026, Sunday


	La Calzada		UD Logroñés Promesas

	1	X	2
	8.6	4.65	1.29
	8.58	5.11	1.26
	8.79	5.05	1.29
	9.5	4.6	1.29
	10.2	5.2	1.23
	9	5	1.26
Avarage Now (Initially)	9.11 ↑ (5.99)	4.94 ↑ (4.02)	1.27 ↓ (1.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

La Calzada
10%

Draw
18.4%

UD Logroñés Promesas
71.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

15.1%

22.5%

62.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

14.8%

22%

63.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

La Calzada has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that La Calzada's form might have worsened.

UD Logroñés Promesas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting UD Logroñés Promesas's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for La Calzada than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for UD Logroñés Promesas than the current prediction. (-7.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for UD Logroñés Promesas, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

La Calzada - UD Logroñés Promesas Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
67', 0 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 13 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Tercera RFEF ~ Group 16 (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, La Calzada won 0.

Recent form of La Calzada has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

UD L Promesas is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

UD L Promesas may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, UD L Promesas has had a series of home games.

In this match, UD L Promesas is the clear favorite.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, La Calzada won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 4:17. (average 0.7:2.8).

Including home matches between the teams, La Calzada won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 1:1.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	CDFC Calzada	5	4	0	1	9:4	5	12

Last Results with these Odds

UD Logroñés Promesas - the odds 1.45 are the expected chance of winning is 62.38%, but this team recently wins 86% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CDFC La Calzada
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 16
18.01.26	Oyonesa - La Calzada	1:1 ✺
10.01.26	Pradejón - La Calzada	2:0 ✺
04.01.26	La Calzada - Anguiano	1:4 ✺
21.12.25	Haro Deportivo - La Calzada	3:4 ✺
14.12.25	La Calzada - Agoncillo	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 TLLWL
- UD Logroñés Promesas
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 16
18.01.26	UD Logroñés Promesas - Varea	2:0 ✺
11.01.26	UD Logroñés Promesas - Peña Balsamaiso	6:1 ✺
04.01.26	Autol - UD Logroñés Promesas	0:0 ✺
21.12.25	UD Logroñés Promesas - Berceo	3:1 ✺
13.12.25	UD Logroñés Promesas - Yagüe	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 WWTWT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 16
14.09.25	UD Logroñés Promesas - La Calzada	4:1
01.12.24	UD Logroñés Promesas - La Calzada	2:0
28.03.24	La Calzada - UD Logroñés Promesas	0:1
12.11.23	UD Logroñés Promesas - La Calzada	2:1
07.03.20	UD Logroñés Promesas - La Calzada	6:0
07.10.18	La Calzada - UD Logroñés Promesas	2:2

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