Match Info

Serie D - Round 13

Date: 19 July 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Paulo Barreto de Menezes (Lagarto)


	Lagarto		Barcelona de Ilhéus

	1	X	2
	1.65	3.6	4.33
	1.49	3.6	6.3
	1.52	3.75	6.4
	1.41	4.03	7.96	Watch
	1.47	3.66	6.88
	1.63	3.64	4.77
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.53 ↓ (1.82)	3.71 ↑ (3.5)	6.11 ↑ (3.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lagarto
60.2%

Draw
24.8%

Barcelona de Ilhéus
15.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.5%

25.8%

24.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.6%

25.2%

24.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lagarto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lagarto's performance.

Barcelona de Ilhéus has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Barcelona de Ilhéus might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lagarto than the current prediction. (-9.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lagarto that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barcelona de Ilhéus than the current prediction. (+9.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Barcelona de Ilhéus could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Lagarto - Barcelona de Ilhéus Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Barcelona (1.99) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Barcelona (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
8', 1 - 0, Thierry ⚽,
19', 2 - 0, Luiz Silva D. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D (Play Offs: 1/16~finals) and 7).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

In this match, Lagarto is seen as the favorite.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lagarto FC
Brazilian Serie D
12.07.25	Sergipe - Lagarto	1:2 ✺
06.07.25	Lagarto - Penedense	4:0 ✺
28.06.25	Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense - Lagarto	1:0 ✺
16.06.25	Lagarto - Jequié	2:1 ✺
11.06.25	Juazeirense - Lagarto	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 WWLWL
- Barcelona de Ilhéus
Brazilian Serie D
13.07.25	Barcelona de Ilhéus - Juazeirense	0:1 ✺
06.07.25	Barcelona de Ilhéus - União Carmolandense	4:1 ✺
29.06.25	Jequié - Barcelona de Ilhéus	0:0 ✺
15.06.25	Barcelona de Ilhéus - Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense	1:0 ✺
08.06.25	Sergipe - Barcelona de Ilhéus	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.9 LWTWL

Lagarto - Barcelona de Ilhéus: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide