Match Info

Serie D - Round 11

Date: 6 July 2025, Sunday


	Lagarto		Penedense

	1	X	2
	1.47	3.7	6
	1.58	3.5	5.3
	1.66	3.3	4.9
				Watch
	1.69	3.34	4.84
	1.4	4.05	6.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.56 ↑ (1.3)	3.58 ↓ (4.6)	5.47 ↓ (8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 9.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lagarto
58.1%

Draw
25.3%

Penedense
16.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.2%

19.6%

11.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.5%

12.3%

17.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lagarto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lagarto's form might have worsened.

Penedense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Penedense's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lagarto than the current prediction. (-14.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lagarto that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Penedense than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Lagarto - Penedense Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Lagarto will win (votes: 6 - 75%). Penedense will win (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lagarto: 45% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Lagarto will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (4 - 0)
26', 1 - 0, Marquinhos Brazion ⚽,
33', 2 - 0, ⚽,
42', 3 - 0, ⚽,
45', 4 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 5 and 8).

Recent performances by Lagarto have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Penedense has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Lagarto is the clear favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Lagarto won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lagarto FC
Brazilian Serie D
28.06.25	Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense - Lagarto	1:0 ✺
16.06.25	Lagarto - Jequié	2:1 ✺
11.06.25	Juazeirense - Lagarto	2:1 ✺
31.05.25	Lagarto - Juazeirense	3:1 ✺
25.05.25	Jequié - Lagarto	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LWLWL
- SC Penedense
Brazilian Serie D
28.06.25	Sergipe - Penedense	2:0 ✺
15.06.25	Penedense - Juazeirense	0:0 ✺
08.06.25	Jequié - Penedense	0:0 ✺
01.06.25	Penedense - Jequié	2:4 ✺
24.05.25	Juazeirense - Penedense	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 LTTLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie D
10.05.25	Penedense - Lagarto	0:1

Lagarto - Penedense: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide