Match Info

Europa League - Qualification - Semi-finals

Date: 4 August 2026, Tuesday

Location: Inver Park (Larne)

Referee: Al-Emara M. (Fin)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Laola1
Georgia	Silk Universal
Germany	Laola1
United-kingdom	Nifl TV
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Larne		Iberia 1999

	1	X	2
	2.4	3	2.7	Watch
	3.10	3.20	2.40
	2.52	3.05	2.88	Watch
	2.58	3.04	2.9
	3.09	3.14	2.44	Watch
	2.55	3	2.8
	2.7	3.19	2.71	Watch
	2.6	3.1	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.69 ↑ (2.55)	3.09 ↓ (3.15)	2.69 ↑ (2.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Larne
34.8%

Draw
30.3%

Iberia 1999
34.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.6%

28.8%

35.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.9%

29.4%

36.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Larne has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Iberia 1999 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Larne than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Iberia 1999 than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
4.3%	11.4%	84.3%

Larne - Iberia 1999 Predictions

Users Predictions: 69 users predict this event. Larne will win (votes: 3 - 4.3%). Iberia 1999 will win (votes: 58 - 84.1%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 11.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Iberia 1999: 75.5% – 92.7%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Iberia 1999 (1.68) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Iberia 1999 will win (9 of 10 users predict this - 90%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Iberia 1999 (votes: 10 - 90.9%). Tie (votes: 1 - 9.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ferguson R. (G) 23. Cosgrove T. (C) 26. Bent D. 3. Ridley M. 4. Donnelly A. 15. Doherty R. 6. Gallagher C. 11. Graham S. 25. Sloan D. 45. Gibson M. 30. Lusty M.	31. Makaridze G. (G) 40. Kobuladze G. 4. Selimovic V. 25. Amisulashvili A. 5. Jinjolava J. (C) 8. Kardava B. 6. Dadiani N. 27. Kutsia G. 10. Natchkebia Z. 19. Sikharulashvili N. 11. Bartishvili A.
Substitutes
16. Carney J. (G) 14. Magee B. 22. McEneff J. 7. McKendry C. 19. O'Hara K. 9. O'Neill P. 47. Simpson J. 17. Ukek J. 2. Wallace L.	14. Alhassan I. 30. Bochorishvili N. 39. Chanturia G. 29. Chikhradze L. 9. Dzagania A. 17. Ende S. 23. Kuliyev E. 1. Megrelishvili T. (G)
Coaches
Haveron G.	Demchenko A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
11', Cosgrove T. 🟨,
45', Gallagher C. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
59', Bartishvili A. ↓, Dzagania A. ↑,
65', Gibson M. ↓, O'Neill P. ↑,
65', Sloan D. ↓, McEneff J. ↑,
66', Jinjolava J. 🟨,
75', Lusty M. ↓, O'Hara K. ↑,
75', Doherty R. ↓, Simpson J. ↑,
78', Kutsia G. ↓, Alhassan I. ↑,

Preview

First leg.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Iberia 1999 may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Larne won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Including home match between the teams, Larne won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Iberia 1999 - the odds 2.55 are the expected chance of winning is 35.59%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Larne FC
UEFA Champions League
29.07.26	Crvena Zvezda Belgrade - Larne	5:0 ✺
21.07.26	Larne - Crvena Zvezda Belgrade	0:4 ✺
14.07.26	Larne - Tre Fiori	2:1 ✺
07.07.26	Tre Fiori - Larne	0:1 ✺
Northern Irish Charity Shield
03.07.26	Larne - Coleraine	1:0 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 LLWWW
- Iberia 1999
UEFA Champions League
29.07.26	Slovan Bratislava - Iberia 1999	1:1 ✺
Georgian Cup
24.07.26	Margveti Zestafoni - Iberia 1999	1:3 ✺
UEFA Champions League
21.07.26	Iberia 1999 - Slovan Bratislava	0:2 ✺
14.07.26	Iberia 1999 - Flora Tallinn	2:2 ✺
08.07.26	Flora Tallinn - Iberia 1999	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 TWLTW

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