Match Info

LaLiga2 - Round 7

Date: 27 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio de Gran Canaria (Las Palmas)

Referee: Muniz C. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports, Dsports 9
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, TOD
Australia	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect
Chile	DirecTV Sports
Ecuador	DirecTV Sports, DSports 9
Indonesia	beIN Connect, Vidio
Malaysia	beIN SPORTS MAX
Mexico	Sky Sport
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	DirecTV Sports Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Peru	DirecTV Sports, DSports 9
Philippines	beIN SPORTS MAX
Portugal	DAZN / App
Serbia	Arena Sport 4
Singapore	beIN SPORTS MAX
South-america	DGO Latin America
Spain	DAZN Espana, LaLiga Hypermotion, Orange Futbol 2
Thailand	beIN SPORTS MAX
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Ukraine
Uruguay	DirecTV Sports
Usa	ESPN App
Venezuela	DirecTV Sports, Inter


	Las Palmas		Almería

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.25	3.4	Watch
	2.12	3.25	3.25
	2.21	3.38	3.57
	17.55	3.84	1.34	Watch
	2.2	3.33	3.48	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.24 ↑ (2.16)	3.41 ↑ (3.33)	3.01 ↓ (3.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Las Palmas
23.4%

Draw
35.9%

Almería
40.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

44.1%

28.6%

27.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.4%

29.1%

27.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Las Palmas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-20.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Las Palmas's form might have worsened.

Almería has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Almería's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Las Palmas than the current prediction. (+20%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Las Palmas, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Almería than the current prediction. (-12.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Almería, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
57.1%	28.6%	14.3%

Las Palmas - Almería Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Las Palmas will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Almería will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH +0.25 - Almería (1.93) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Almería (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Horkas D. (G) 2. Marvin 4. Alex Suarez 6. Sergio Barcia 23. Gutierrez C. 14. Fuster M. 16. Amatucci L. 12. Loiodice E. 22. Garcia A. 25. Lukovic M. 21. Viera J. (C)	1. Fernandez A. (G) 22. Chirino D. 4. Monte N. 18. Bonini F. 3. Munoz A. 8. Gui Guedes 29. Dzodic S. 23. Embarba A. (C) 11. Arribas S. 10. Melamed N. 19. Soko P.
Substitutes
13. Caro J. (G) 18. Cedeno E. 8. Gil I. 26. Gonzalez I. 15. Herzog J. 10. Jese 7. Mata J. 24. Pejino 27. Pezzolesi V. 9. Recoba J. 35. Suarez A. (G) 17. Viti	14. Baba I. 20. Centelles A. 21. Chumi 5. Clua S. 15. Hernandez A. 6. Horta A. 12. Leo Baptistao 16. Luna M. 13. Martinez F. (G) 36. Perovic M. 2. Puigmal A. 9. Thalys
Coaches
Garcia L.	Rubi

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
22', Gui Guedes 🟨,
37', 0 - 1, Arribas S. ⚽, Munoz A. (A),
45', Embarba A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Gui Guedes ↓, Baba I. ↑,
46', Monte N. 🟨,
58', Lukovic M. 🟥,
66', Embarba A. 🟨,
68', Loiodice E. ↓, Gil I. ↑,
69', Arribas S. ↓, Clua S. ↑,
69', Dzodic S. ↓, Leo Baptistao ↑,
70', Soko P. ↓, Puigmal A. ↑,
74', Marvin 🟨,
78', Viera J. ↓, Jese ↑,
83', Amatucci L. ↓, Viti ↑,
84', Gutierrez C. ↓, Cedeno E. ↑,
84', Fuster M. ↓, Pejino ↑,
89', Melamed N. ↓, Centelles A. ↑,
90+5', Viti 🟨,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ LaLiga2 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Las Palmas won 1.

Las Palmas is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Almería's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Las Palmas may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Las Palmas is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Las Palmas: Ramirez S. (Knee Injury) Viti (Health problems)

There will not play in Almería: Chumi (Injury)

There are questionable in Almería: Lopy D. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Las Palmas won 4 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 18:28. (average 0.9:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Las Palmas won 1 match, drew 6 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 9:16. (average 0.8:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Las Palmas
Spanish LaLiga2
20.09.25	Leganés - Las Palmas	0:1 ✺
12.09.25	Las Palmas - Real Sociedad B	2:1 ✺
07.09.25	Burgos - Las Palmas	0:0 ✺
31.08.25	Las Palmas - Málaga	0:1 ✺
25.08.25	Córdoba - Las Palmas	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 WWTLW
- UD Almería
Spanish LaLiga2
20.09.25	Almería - Sporting de Gijón	2:1 ✺
13.09.25	Valladolid - Almería	3:1 ✺
07.09.25	Almería - Racing Santander	2:3 ✺
29.08.25	Real Sociedad B - Almería	2:2 ✺
24.08.25	Leonesa - Almería	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
17.03.24	Las Palmas - Almería	0:1
28.10.23	Almería - Las Palmas	1:2
Club Friendly
23.07.23	Las Palmas - Almería	0:0
Spanish LaLiga2
09.01.22	Las Palmas - Almería	1:1
09.10.21	Almería - Las Palmas	1:1
14.02.21	Almería - Las Palmas	3:1
17.10.20	Las Palmas - Almería	2:0

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