Match Info

SPAIN: LaLiga - Round 3

Date: 29 August 2024, Thursday

Location: Estadio de Gran Canaria (Las Palmas)

Referee: Busquets Ferrer M. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Afghanistan	Meraj Sport
Africa	CANAL+ Sport 3, DStv Now, New World Sport App, StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Life, Startimes Sports Premium, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport MaXimo 1, SuperSport Maximo 3
Albania	K-Sport 1
Andorra	beIN Sports 1
Angola	Z Sport La Liga
Argentina	ESPN
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Austria	DAZN Austria
Belgium	DAZN 1, Play Sports 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 3, Moja TV
Brazil	Claro TV+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	TSN 2, TSN+
Chile	ESPN
China	Migu, QQ Sports
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 3
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4
Denmark	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport X
Europe	Go3 Sport 1 Baltic, Setanta Sports 1 Baltic
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Urheilu 1
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports France 1, beIN Sports MENA French 1, beIN Sports MENA French 1, beIN Sports MENA French 1, Free, myCANAL
Georgia	Setanta Sports 1, Silk Sport 1
Germany	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 1 Deutsch, Sky Go Germany
Greece	Nova Sports 1
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, Now Player, Now Sports 2
Hungary	Spiler2 TV, TV2 Play Premium
India	GXR World
Indonesia	beIN Connect, Vidio
Israel	ONE Sport
Italy	DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan, U-NEXT
Kosovo	K Sport 1
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 4
Mexico	Blue To Go Video Everywhere, Sky HD, Sky Sport
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 2, Ziggo Sport
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte, SportsMax Caribbean
North-macedonia	TDM Desporto
Norway	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport 1
Pakistan	ARY ZAP
Peru	ESPN
Philippines	beIN Connect
Poland	Eleven Sports 1
Portugal	DAZN 1
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Prima Sport 2
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 2, Okko Sport, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1
South-america	ESPN South
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	LaLiga TV Bar, M+ LaLiga 1, M+ LaLiga 2, Movistar Plus+ 1
Sweden	TV4 Fotboll, TV4 Play
Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport D1, Blue Sport D1
Taiwan	DAZN
Tajikistan	Varzish Sport
Tanzania	Azam Sports 4
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Turkey	S Sport, S Sport+
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 1
United-kingdom	beIN Sports MENA English 1, LaLiga TV, Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN Deportes, ESPN+, FuboTV
Venezuela	ESPN
Vietnam	SCTV 22, SCTV Online
World	Disney+, JioTV app, Setanta Sports 1 Eurasia, SportsMax App


	Las Palmas		Real Madrid

	1	X	2
	8.5	5.5	1.3	Watch
	8.25	5.5	1.33
	9.5	5.5	1.33	Watch
	9.99	5.77	1.33
	9.12	6.02	1.32	Watch
	10	5.5	1.3
	11.1	6.19	1.31	Watch
	9.5	5.5	1.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	9.5 ↑ (7.31)	5.69 ↑ (4.87)	1.32 ↓ (1.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

Watch this match and Spanish LaLiga with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: ESPN Deportes

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Current Win Probability

Las Palmas
10.1%

Draw
16.9%

Real Madrid
72.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

13.1%

19.6%

67.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

14.3%

18%

61.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Las Palmas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Real Madrid has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Real Madrid's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Las Palmas than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (-11.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Real Madrid, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.5%	3.7%	88.7%

Las Palmas - Real Madrid Predictions

Users Predictions: Real Madrid will win (71 of 80 users predict this - 88.75%).
Confidence interval (95%): 81.83% – 95.67%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Cillessen J. (G) 2. Marvin 4. Alex Suarez 15. McKenna S. 3. Marmol M. 8. Campana J. 20. Rodriguez K. (C) 5. Javier Munoz 10. Moleiro A. 16. McBurnie O. 19. Ramirez S.	1. Courtois T. (G) 17. Lucas 3. Militao E. 22. Rudiger A. 23. Mendy F. 8. Valverde F. 14. Tchouameni A. 10. Modric L. (C) 21. Diaz B. 9. Mbappe K. 7. Vinicius Junior
Substitutes
26. Bassinga A. 9. Cardona M. 14. Fuster M. 21. Gil I. 6. Gonzalez F. 28. Herzog J. 30. Killane A. (G) 12. Loiodice E. 17. Mata J. 23. Munoz A. 11. Ramirez B. 18. Viti	2. Carvajal D. 19. Ceballos D. 16. Endrick 26. Fran (G) 20. Garcia F. 15. Guler A. 13. Lunin A. (G) 31. Ramon J. 11. Rodrygo
Coaches
Carrion L.	Ancelotti C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
5', 1 - 0, Moleiro A. ⚽, McBurnie O. (A),
40', Mendy F. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Diaz B. ↓, Rodrygo ↑,
46', Mendy F. ↓, Garcia F. ↑,
61', Moleiro A. ↓, Ramirez B. ↑,
63', Modric L. ↓, Guler A. ↑,
69', 1 - 1, Vinicius Junior (Pen),
75', Carrion L. 🟨,
76', Lucas ↓, Carvajal D. ↑,
78', Ramirez S. ↓, Mata J. ↑,
78', McBurnie O. ↓, Viti ↑,
81', Campana J. ↓, Loiodice E. ↑,
81', Rodriguez K. ↓, Fuster M. ↑,
86', Vinicius Junior ↓, Endrick ↑,
88', Militao E. 🟨,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Las Palmas won 0.

Recent matches Las Palmas is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Real is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

In this match Real is absolute favorite.

There will not play in Las Palmas: Januzaj A. (Muscle Injury) Pejino (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Real: Alaba D. (Knee Injury) Bellingham J. (Muscle Injury) Camavinga E. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Las Palmas: Gonzalez F. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Real: Vallejo J. (Knock)

Last 8 head-to-head matches Las Palmas won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 8-20.

Including matches at home between the teams Las Palmas won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 4-9.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Las Palmas
Spanish LaLiga
25.08.24	Leganés - Las Palmas	2:1 ✺
16.08.24	Las Palmas - Sevilla	2:2 ✺
Club Friendly
11.08.24	Liverpool - Las Palmas	0:0 ✺
03.08.24	Las Palmas - Unión Sur Yaiza	4:0 ✺
02.08.24	Las Palmas - Al-Shabab Riyadh	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 LTTWW
- Real Madrid
Spanish LaLiga
25.08.24	Real Madrid - Valladolid	3:0 ✺
18.08.24	Mallorca - Real Madrid	1:1 ✺
UEFA Super Cup
14.08.24	Real Madrid - Atalanta	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
06.08.24	Real Madrid - Chelsea	2:1 ✺
03.08.24	Barcelona - Real Madrid	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
27.01.24	Las Palmas - Real Madrid	1:2
27.09.23	Real Madrid - Las Palmas	2:0
31.03.18	Las Palmas - Real Madrid	0:3
05.11.17	Real Madrid - Las Palmas	3:0
01.03.17	Real Madrid - Las Palmas	3:3
24.09.16	Las Palmas - Real Madrid	2:2
13.03.16	Las Palmas - Real Madrid	1:2

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