Match Info

SPAIN: LaLiga - Round 3

Date: 29 August 2024, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio de Gran Canaria (Las Palmas) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Busquets Ferrer M. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Afghanistan	00:00	Meraj Sport
Africa	—	CANAL+ Sport 3, DStv Now, New World Sport App, StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Life, Startimes Sports Premium, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport MaXimo 1, SuperSport Maximo 3
Albania	21:30	K-Sport 1
Andorra	21:30	beIN Sports 1
Angola	20:30	Z Sport La Liga
Argentina	16:30	ESPN
Armenia	23:30	Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, TOD
Australia	05:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Austria	21:30	DAZN Austria
Belgium	21:30	DAZN 1, Play Sports 1
Bosnia And Herzegovina	21:30	Arena Premium 3, Moja TV
Brazil	16:30	Claro TV+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	22:30	Max Sport 4
Canada	15:30	TSN 2, TSN+
Chile	15:30	ESPN
China	03:30	Migu, QQ Sports
Colombia	14:30	ESPN
Croatia	21:30	Arena Sport 3
Czech Republic	21:30	Nova Sport 4
Denmark	21:30	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport X
Europe	—	Go3 Sport 1 Baltic, Setanta Sports 1 Baltic
Finland	22:30	MTV Katsomo, MTV Urheilu 1
France	21:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports France 1, beIN Sports MENA French 1, beIN Sports MENA French 1, beIN Sports MENA French 1, Free, myCANAL
Georgia	23:30	Setanta Sports 1, Silk Sport 1
Germany	21:30	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 1 Deutsch, Sky Go Germany
Greece	22:30	Nova Sports 1
Hong Kong	03:30	M Plus Live, Now Player, Now Sports 2
Hungary	21:30	Spiler2 TV, TV2 Play Premium
India	01:00	GXR World
Indonesia	02:30	beIN Connect, Vidio
Israel	22:30	ONE Sport
Italy	21:30	DAZN Italia
Japan	04:30	DAZN Japan, U-NEXT
Kosovo	21:30	K Sport 1
Laos	02:30	beIN Connect
Malaysia	03:30	beIN Connect
Malta	21:30	GO TV, TSN Malta 4
Mexico	13:30	Blue To Go Video Everywhere, Sky HD, Sky Sport
Netherlands	21:30	Ziggo Sport 2, Ziggo Sport
New Zealand	07:30	beIN Connect
North Central America	—	Sky Sports Norte, SportsMax Caribbean
North Macedonia	21:30	TDM Desporto
Norway	21:30	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport 1
Pakistan	00:30	ARY ZAP
Peru	14:30	ESPN
Philippines	03:30	beIN Connect
Poland	21:30	Eleven Sports 1
Portugal	20:30	DAZN 1
Romania	22:30	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Prima Sport 2
Russia	22:30	MATCH! Futbol 2, Okko Sport, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	21:30	Arena Premium 2
Slovakia	21:30	Voyo
Slovenia	21:30	Arena Sport 1
South America	—	ESPN South
South Korea	04:30	Coupang Play
Spain	21:30	LaLiga TV Bar, M+ LaLiga 1, M+ LaLiga 2, Movistar Plus+ 1
Sweden	21:30	TV4 Fotboll, TV4 Play
Switzerland	21:30	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport D1, Blue Sport D1
Taiwan	03:30	DAZN
Tajikistan	00:30	Varzish Sport
Tanzania	22:30	Azam Sports 4
Thailand	02:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Turkey	22:30	S Sport, S Sport+
Ukraine	22:30	MEGOGO Futbol 1
United Kingdom	20:30	beIN Sports MENA English 1, LaLiga TV, Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player
Usa	15:30	ESPN App, ESPN Deportes, ESPN+, FuboTV
Venezuela	15:30	ESPN
Vietnam	02:30	SCTV 22, SCTV Online
International	19:30	Disney+, JioTV app, Setanta Sports 1 Eurasia, SportsMax App


	Las Palmas		Real Madrid

	1	X	2
	8.5	5.5	1.3	Watch
	8.25	5.5	1.33
	9.5	5.5	1.33	Watch
	9.99	5.77	1.33
	9.12	6.02	1.32	Watch
	10	5.5	1.3
	11.1	6.19	1.31	Watch
	9.5	5.5	1.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	9.5 ↑ (7.31)	5.69 ↑ (4.87)	1.32 ↓ (1.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

Watch this match and Spanish LaLiga with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: ESPN Deportes

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Current Win Probability

Las Palmas
10.1%

Draw
16.9%

Real Madrid
72.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

13.1%

19.6%

67.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

14.3%

19.3%

66.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Las Palmas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Real Madrid has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Real Madrid's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Las Palmas than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (-6.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Real Madrid, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.5%	3.7%	88.7%

Las Palmas - Real Madrid Predictions

Users Predictions: Real Madrid will win (71 of 80 users predict this - 88.75%).
Confidence interval (95%): 81.83% – 95.67%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Cillessen J. (G) 2. Marvin 4. Alex Suarez 15. McKenna S. 3. Marmol M. 8. Campana J. 20. Rodriguez K. (C) 5. Javier Munoz 10. Moleiro A. 16. McBurnie O. 19. Ramirez S.	1. Courtois T. (G) 17. Lucas 3. Militao E. 22. Rudiger A. 23. Mendy F. 8. Valverde F. 14. Tchouameni A. 10. Modric L. (C) 21. Diaz B. 9. Mbappe K. 7. Vinicius Junior
Substitutes
26. Bassinga A. 9. Cardona M. 14. Fuster M. 21. Gil I. 6. Gonzalez F. 28. Herzog J. 30. Killane A. (G) 12. Loiodice E. 17. Mata J. 23. Munoz A. 11. Ramirez B. 18. Viti	2. Carvajal D. 19. Ceballos D. 16. Endrick 26. Fran (G) 20. Garcia F. 15. Guler A. 13. Lunin A. (G) 31. Ramon J. 11. Rodrygo
Coaches
Carrion L.	Ancelotti C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
5', 1 - 0, Moleiro A. ⚽, McBurnie O. (A),
40', Mendy F. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Diaz B. ↓, Rodrygo ↑,
46', Mendy F. ↓, Garcia F. ↑,
61', Moleiro A. ↓, Ramirez B. ↑,
63', Modric L. ↓, Guler A. ↑,
69', 1 - 1, Vinicius Junior (Pen),
75', Carrion L. 🟨,
76', Lucas ↓, Carvajal D. ↑,
78', Ramirez S. ↓, Mata J. ↑,
78', McBurnie O. ↓, Viti ↑,
81', Campana J. ↓, Loiodice E. ↑,
81', Rodriguez K. ↓, Fuster M. ↑,
86', Vinicius Junior ↓, Endrick ↑,
88', Militao E. 🟨,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Las Palmas won 0.

Recent matches Las Palmas is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Real is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

In this match Real is absolute favorite.

There will not play in Las Palmas: Januzaj A. (Muscle Injury) Pejino (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Real: Alaba D. (Knee Injury) Bellingham J. (Muscle Injury) Camavinga E. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Las Palmas: Gonzalez F. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Real: Vallejo J. (Knock)

Last 8 head-to-head matches Las Palmas won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 8-20.

Including matches at home between the teams Las Palmas won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 4-9.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Las Palmas
Spanish LaLiga
25.08.24	Leganés - Las Palmas	2:1 ✺
16.08.24	Las Palmas - Sevilla	2:2 ✺
Club Friendly
11.08.24	Liverpool - Las Palmas	0:0 ✺
03.08.24	Las Palmas - Unión Sur Yaiza	4:0 ✺
02.08.24	Las Palmas - Al-Shabab Riyadh	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 LTTWW
- Real Madrid
Spanish LaLiga
25.08.24	Real Madrid - Valladolid	3:0 ✺
18.08.24	Mallorca - Real Madrid	1:1 ✺
UEFA Super Cup
14.08.24	Real Madrid - Atalanta	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
06.08.24	Real Madrid - Chelsea	2:1 ✺
03.08.24	Barcelona - Real Madrid	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
27.01.24	Las Palmas - Real Madrid	1:2
27.09.23	Real Madrid - Las Palmas	2:0
31.03.18	Las Palmas - Real Madrid	0:3
05.11.17	Real Madrid - Las Palmas	3:0
01.03.17	Real Madrid - Las Palmas	3:3
24.09.16	Las Palmas - Real Madrid	2:2
13.03.16	Las Palmas - Real Madrid	1:2

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