Match Info

Swiss Cup - Quarter-finals

Date: 4 February 2026, Wednesday

Location: Stade Olympique de la Pontaise (Lausanne)

Where to Watch on TV:


Switzerland	RTS Sport, RTS Sport


	Lausanne Ouchy		Luzern

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.5	2.85
	2.28	3.35	2.92
	2.29	3.67	2.82
	1.13	7.93	17.84	Watch
	2.25	3.4	2.63
	2.34	3.48	2.79	Watch
	2.28	3.5	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.12 ↓ (2.98)	4.12 ↑ (3.46)	4.95 ↑ (2.19)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lausanne Ouchy
51.5%

Draw
26.5%

Luzern
22%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31%

26.7%

42.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.2%

25.7%

40.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lausanne Ouchy has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+20.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lausanne Ouchy's performance.

Luzern has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-20.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Luzern might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lausanne Ouchy than the current prediction. (-19.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lausanne Ouchy that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luzern than the current prediction. (+18.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Luzern could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	20%	60%

Lausanne Ouchy - Luzern Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Lausanne Ouchy will win (votes: 3 - 20%). Luzern will win (votes: 9 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Luzern: 35.2% – 84.8%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Lausanne Ouchy (1.69) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Luzern (2.10) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Luzern will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Lausanne Ouchy (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Luzern (votes: 5 - 83.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Da Silva D. (G) 28. Kaloga I. 71. Malula B. (C) 22. Barbet T. 3. Conus B. 88. Lusuena N. 77. Tritten V. 25. Nkama J. 13. Bah K. 11. Sartoretti M. 7. Nomel L.	1. Loretz P. (G) 20. Dorn P. (C) 5. Knezevic S. 46. Freimann B. 14. Ciganiks A. 29. Winkler L. 6. Abe T. 24. Owusu T. 11. Di Giusto M. 16. Kabwit O. 9. Grbic A.
Substitutes
24. Akichi E. 19. Besson L. (G) 43. de Oliveira L. 70. Djoumgoue M. 8. Fargues H. 10. Garcia N. 44. Lukembila H. 21. Mendy F. 26. Socka Bongue L.	4. Bajrami A. 22. Dantas R. 10. Karweina S. 2. Ottiger S. 73. Silva Ferreira L. M. 90. Vasic V. (G) 19. Vasovic A. 27. Villiger L. 81. Von Moos J.
Coaches
Stevanovic D.	Frick M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
4', 1 - 0, Barbet T. ⚽,
17', 2 - 0, Bah K. ⚽,
24', Knezevic S. ↓, Bajrami A. ↑,
24', Winkler L. ↓, Silva Ferreira L. M. ↑,
44', Ciganiks A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
60', Grbic A. ↓, Vasovic A. ↑,
60', Owusu T. ↓, Von Moos J. ↑,
67', Bah K. ↓, Garcia N. ↑,
69', Kabwit O. ↓, Villiger L. ↑,
71', Da Silva D. 🟨,
83', Sartoretti M. ↓, Socka Bongue L. ↑,
83', Conus B. ↓, Lukembila H. ↑,
87', 2 - 1, Silva Ferreira L. M. ⚽,
90', Nkama J. ↓, Fargues H. ↑,
90', Lusuena N. ↓, Akichi E. ↑,
90+1', Freimann B. 🟨,

Preview

Lausanne Ouchy is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Luzern has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Lausanne Ouchy may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Lausanne Ouchy won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:7. (average 1.3:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Lausanne Ouchy won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:4. (average 1:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lausanne Ouchy
Swiss Challenge League
30.01.26	Lausanne Ouchy - Vaduz	5:2 ✺
24.01.26	Rapperswil-Jona - Lausanne Ouchy	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
17.01.26	Lausanne Ouchy - Biel-Bienne	2:0 ✺
Swiss Challenge League
19.12.25	Étoile Carouge - Lausanne Ouchy	1:2 ✺
13.12.25	Lausanne Ouchy - Yverdon	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WLWWW
- FC Luzern
Swiss Super League
01.02.26	Luzern - St. Gallen	2:2 ✺
24.01.26	Sion - Luzern	1:1 ✺
17.01.26	Luzern - Lugano	2:5 ✺
Club Friendly
05.01.26	Stuttgart - Luzern	3:2 ✺
Swiss Super League
21.12.25	Lausanne-Sport - Luzern	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 TTLLW

Latest Head to Head

Swiss Super League
21.05.24	Luzern - Lausanne Ouchy	1:2
10.03.24	Lausanne Ouchy - Luzern	2:1
01.02.24	Lausanne Ouchy - Luzern	0:3
30.07.23	Luzern - Lausanne Ouchy	2:1

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