Match Info

Super League - Round 20

Date: 17 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Swissporarena (Luzern)

Referee: Schnyder U. (Sui)

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	SportKlub 5
Slovenia	SportKlub 3
Switzerland	Blue Sport 3, Blue Sport 3
Ukraine	Sport 1
World	Sport 1 Baltic


	Luzern		Lugano

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.25	2.5	Watch
	2.62	3.35	2.48
	2.73	3.35	2.58	Watch
	2.7	3.1	2.5
	2.88	3.23	2.43	Watch
	2.71	3.25	2.57
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.72 ↑ (2.69)	3.26 ↓ (3.42)	2.51 ↑ (2.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Luzern
34.2%

Draw
28.6%

Lugano
37.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.4%

27.1%

38.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34%

26.8%

39%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luzern has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Lugano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luzern than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lugano than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	20%	40%

Luzern - Lugano Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Luzern will win (votes: 4 - 40%). Lugano will win (votes: 4 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Luzern: 9.6% – 70.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Lugano (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Loretz P. (G) 2. Ottiger S. 46. Freimann B. 4. Bajrami A. 22. Dantas R. 20. Dorn P. (C) 24. Owusu T. 7. Spadanuda K. 11. Di Giusto M. 27. Villiger L. 81. Von Moos J.	1. Saipi A. (G) 46. Zanotti M. 6. Papadopoulos A. 3. Delcroix H. 26. Marques M. 25. Bislimi U. 8. Grgic A. 21. Cimignani Y. 11. Steffen R. (C) 27. Dos Santos D. 91. Behrens K.
Substitutes
41. Bock J. (G) 14. Ciganiks A. 9. Grbic A. 16. Kabwit O. 10. Karweina S. 5. Knezevic S. 73. Silva Ferreira L. M. 19. Vasovic A. 29. Winkler L.	7. Alioski E. 29. Belhadj M. 10. Bottani M. 2. Brault-Guillard Z. 19. Cassano C. 4. Kelvin D. 14. Kendouci A. 18. Mahou H. 16. von Ballmoos D. (G)
Coaches
Frick M.	Croci-Torti M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 3)
25', 1 - 0, Di Giusto M. ⚽, Owusu T. (A),
41', 1 - 1, Bislimi U. ⚽, Dos Santos D. (A),
45', 1 - 2, Bislimi U. ⚽, Dos Santos D. (A),
45+1', 1 - 3, Behrens K. ⚽, Dos Santos D. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Dantas R. ↓, Ciganiks A. ↑,
46', Ottiger S. ↓, Winkler L. ↑,
47', Dos Santos D. 🟨,
52', Dos Santos D. ↓, Belhadj M. ↑,
59', 1 - 4, Bislimi U. ⚽, Grgic A. (A),
60', Spadanuda K. ↓, Silva Ferreira L. M. ↑,
61', 1 - 5, Behrens K. ⚽, Marques M. (A),
65', Papadopoulos A. 🟨,
71', Von Moos J. ↓, Grbic A. ↑,
71', 2 - 5, Freimann B. ⚽,
77', Cimignani Y. ↓, Kelvin D. ↑,
77', Marques M. ↓, Alioski E. ↑,
77', Villiger L. ↓, Vasovic A. ↑,
85', Steffen R. ↓, Kendouci A. ↑,
85', Bislimi U. ↓, Mahou H. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 9 in the zone Super League (Relegation Group: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Super League (Championship Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Luzern won 1.

Recent form of Luzern has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Lugano has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Lugano may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Luzern has had a series of away games.

Recently, Lugano has had a series of home games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Luzern: Abe T. (Yellow Cards) Lofgren J. (Hernia) Zimmermann M. (Hip Injury)

There will not play in Lugano: Alioski E. (Foot Injury) Bottani M. (Tendon Injury) von Ballmoos D. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Luzern won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 29:39. (average 1.5:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Luzern won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 14:19. (average 1.6:2.1).

Outrights of Swiss Super League for now

Lugano: 42.18% Luzern: 1.66%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Lugano	10	9	1	0	31:7	24	28
8	Luzern	10	3	3	4	17:22	-5	12

Last Results with these Odds

Luzern - the odds 2.69 are the expected chance of winning is 34.4%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Luzern
Club Friendly
05.01.26	Stuttgart - Luzern	3:2 ✺
Swiss Super League
21.12.25	Lausanne-Sport - Luzern	0:4 ✺
17.12.25	Luzern - Basel	1:2 ✺
14.12.25	Young Boys - Luzern	2:0 ✺
06.12.25	Thun - Luzern	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LWLLL
- FC Lugano
Club Friendly
09.01.26	Lugano - Viktoria Plzeň	2:4 ✺
05.01.26	Lugano - Köln	1:2 ✺
Swiss Super League
21.12.25	Lugano - Young Boys	3:0 ✺
17.12.25	Zürich - Lugano	0:1 ✺
14.12.25	Lugano - Servette	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Swiss Super League
30.10.25	Lugano - Luzern	2:0
04.05.25	Luzern - Lugano	0:2
15.02.25	Lugano - Luzern	2:0
07.12.24	Luzern - Lugano	1:4
11.08.24	Lugano - Luzern	2:3
03.03.24	Luzern - Lugano	0:1
03.12.23	Lugano - Luzern	1:0

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