Match Info

FRANCE: National - Round 28

Date: 5 April 2024, Friday

Location: Stade Marie-Marvingt (Le Mans)


	Le Mans		Avranches

	1	X	2
	1.38	4.33	6.25
	1.4	4.5	7
	1.42	4.55	7.36
	1.43	4.55	7.36
	1.36	4.33	7
	1.39	4.55	7.17	Watch
	1.4	4.4	6.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.4 ↓ (1.6)	4.46 ↑ (3.93)	6.93 ↑ (5.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Le Mans
66%

Draw
20.7%

Avranches
13.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.5%

23.7%

17.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61%

22.7%

17%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Le Mans has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Le Mans's performance.

Avranches has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Le Mans than the current prediction. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Avranches than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Le Mans - Avranches Predictions

Users Predictions: Le Mans will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Kocik N. (G) 18. Boussaid M. 26. Colas E. 25. Gueye D. 24. Lehoux P. 22. Njoh L. 29. Quarshie E. 9. Rabillard A. 13. Raghouber U. 12. Ribelin A. 17. Yohou S.	40. Quilichini G. (G) 17. Bansais D. 20. Kerouedan A. 2. Launay B. 10. Magnon P. 7. Nsimba S. 14. Pierre L. 25. Pi J. 5. Rabuel M. 6. Smith J. 24. Tertereau A.
Substitutes
8. Lauray A. 10. Le Mehaute Y. 14. Touho M. 20. Vargas-Rios H. 15. Vula A.	30. Bisson N. (G) 23. Daguin V. 11. Jean D. 4. Lemeray M. 21. Remars M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
16', 0 - 1, Magnon P. ⚽, Kerouedan A. (A),
22', 1 - 1, Raghouber U. ⚽,
26', Pi J. 🟨,
30', 2 - 1, Gueye D. ⚽, Colas E. (A),
41', 2 - 2, Pierre L. ⚽, Kerouedan A. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Rabuel M. ↓, Lemeray M. ↑,
47', 3 - 2, Gueye D. ⚽, Boussaid M. (A),
54', Pierre L. ↓, Daguin V. ↑,
59', Smith J. 🟨,
60', Rabillard A. ↓, Le Mehaute Y. ↑,
67', Tertereau A. ↓, Jean D. ↑,
70', Gueye D. ↓, Vargas-Rios H. ↑,
70', Colas E. ↓, Vula A. ↑,
71', Magnon P. ↓, Remars M. ↑,
75', Lemeray M. 🟨,
79', Boussaid M. ↓, Touho M. ↑,
79', Ribelin A. ↓, Lauray A. ↑,
80', Vargas-Rios H. 🟨,
84', Njoh L. 🟨,
89', 3 - 3, Kerouedan A. (Pen),
90+3', 3 - 4, Kerouedan A. ⚽, Launay B. (A),

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will meet in this game (ranked 6 and 16 in the zone Relegation).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Le Mans won 2.

Le Mans in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Avranches has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Le Mans could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Le Mans is indisputable favorite.

Our prediction for today's Le Mans to win the game is with odds 1.38.

Last 9 head-to-head matches Le Mans won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 12-11.

Including matches at home between the teams Le Mans won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 6-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Le Mans FC
French Ligue 3
29.03.24	Le Mans - Épinal	1:0 ✺
22.03.24	Rouen FC - Le Mans	0:1 ✺
15.03.24	Le Mans - Martigues	2:0 ✺
09.03.24	Sochaux - Le Mans	2:2 ✺
02.03.24	Le Mans - GOAL FC	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.8 WWWTW
- US Avranches
French Ligue 3
30.03.24	Avranches - Rouen FC	1:2 ✺
26.03.24	Avranches - Villefranche	1:3 ✺
22.03.24	Martigues - Avranches	2:0 ✺
15.03.24	Avranches - Sochaux	0:1 ✺
08.03.24	GOAL FC - Avranches	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 3
03.11.23	Avranches - Le Mans	2:1
10.03.23	Avranches - Le Mans	4:0
30.09.22	Le Mans - Avranches	3:0
06.05.22	Le Mans - Avranches	1:3
29.01.22	Avranches - Le Mans	0:1
16.04.21	Le Mans - Avranches	1:1
30.11.20	Avranches - Le Mans	0:2

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