Match Info

Ligue 2 - Round 18

Date: 3 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Stade Marie-Marvingt (Le Mans)

Referee: Taleb A. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA French 2, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Canada	beIN Connect
Croatia	Arena Sport 7, MAXtv To Go
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, Free
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Japan	DAZN Japan
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Serbia	Arena Sport 6
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz


	Le Mans		Saint-Étienne

	1	X	2
	2.63	3.5	2.35	Watch
	2.75	3.4	2.37
	2.72	3.4	2.38
	2.67	3.75	2.36	Watch
	2.7	3.3	2.4
	2.75	3.4	2.41	Watch
	2.75	3.5	2.37
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.71 ↓ (2.78)	3.46 ↑ (3.39)	2.38 ↓ (2.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Le Mans
34.2%

Draw
26.8%

Saint-Étienne
39%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.6%

27.5%

38.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.5%

27.6%

39%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Le Mans has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Saint-Étienne has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Le Mans than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

The ML Model estimate for Saint-Étienne aligns with the current prediction.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
26.3%	68.4%	5.3%

Le Mans - Saint Étienne Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Le Mans will win (votes: 5 - 26.3%). Saint-Étienne will win (votes: 1 - 5.3%). It will Tie (votes: 13 - 68.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 47.5% – 89.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Le Mans (votes: 1 - 20%). Tie (votes: 4 - 80%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Le Mans (1.99) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Le Mans (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 4 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Kocik N. (G) 21. Eyoum T. 17. Yohou S. 3. Cossier I. 8. Lauray A. 12. Ribelin A. 24. Robin M. 6. Quarshie E. (C) 18. Buades L. 9. Rabillard A. 25. Gueye D.	30. Larsonneur G. (G) 39. Pedro K. 8. Appiah D. 3. Nade M. 11. Old B. 36. Eymard P. 10. Tardieu F. 28. Miladinovic I. 22. Davitashvili Z. 9. Stassin L. 31. El Jamali N.
Substitutes
28. Colas E. 19. Guillaume B. 31. Hammoudi I. 1. Hatfout E. (G) 23. Luvambo T. 26. Oggad B. 27. Rossignol M.	7. Cardona I. 35. Gadegbeku L. 15. Lamba C. 16. Maubleu B. (G) 29. Moueffek A. 25. N'Guessan D. 2. Stojkovic S.
Coaches
Videira P.	Horneland E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Eymard P. ↓, Cardona I. ↑,
54', Tardieu F. 🟨,
68', Quarshie E. ↓, Rossignol M. ↑,
68', Gueye D. ↓, Colas E. ↑,
69', Miladinovic I. ↓, Moueffek A. ↑,
71', Ribelin A. 🟨,
74', Rabillard A. ↓, Luvambo T. ↑,
82', Lauray A. 🟨,
85', Ribelin A. ↓, Oggad B. ↑,
85', Lauray A. ↓, Hammoudi I. ↑,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final)).

Le Mans is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Saint-Étienne has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Le Mans may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Le Mans has had a series of away games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Le Mans: Calodat L. (Inactive) Cisse A. (Knee Injury) Gomes M. (Ankle Injury) Harhouz W. (Leg Injury) Vercruysse J. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Saint-Étienne: Annan E. (Injury) Boakye A. (Yellow Cards) Duffus J. (Inactive) Ekwah P. (Inactive) Ferreira J. (Inactive) Lamba C. (Muscle Injury) Moueffek A. (Inactive) Traore L. (Inactive)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Le Mans won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2.

Outrights of French Ligue 2 for now

St Etienne: 56.34%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	St Etienne	7	5	1	1	19:8	11	16

Last Results with these Odds

Le Mans - the odds 2.78 are the expected chance of winning is 33.58%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Le Mans FC
Coupe De France
19.12.25	Périgny - Le Mans	1:2 ✺
French Ligue 2
12.12.25	Annecy - Le Mans	1:2 ✺
05.12.25	Le Mans - Amiens	1:0 ✺
Coupe De France
29.11.25	Villeneuve-Garenne - Le Mans	2:3 penalties ✺
French Ligue 2
21.11.25	Pau - Le Mans	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 WWWWW
- AS Saint-Étienne
Coupe De France
21.12.25	Nice - Saint-Étienne	2:1 ✺
French Ligue 2
13.12.25	Saint-Étienne - Bastia	2:2 ✺
06.12.25	Dunkerque - Saint-Étienne	1:0 ✺
Coupe De France
29.11.25	Saint-Étienne - Ecotay Moingt	11:1 ✺
French Ligue 2
22.11.25	Saint-Étienne - Nancy	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 LTLWW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 2
18.10.25	Saint-Étienne - Le Mans	2:3

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